000 AXNT20 KNHC 271048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 647 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Far Eastern Atlantic Gale: Meteo France is forecasting gale force winds today, near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir. Gale force winds are likely occurring now and should last until about 27/1200 UTC. Please see the Meteo France High Seas Forecast product at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions- meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 06N18W to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered showers prevail within 75 nm on either side of the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ mainly west of 19W. GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system extends across the southeastern portion of the basin. It was analyzed as a cold front from 26N82W to 23N87W, then becomes weak from that point to 18N92W. No significant convection is related to these fronts at this time. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N88W to 18N90W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 130 nm east of the trough affecting the Yucatan Channel and west Caribbean. Surface ridging is building across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 28N93W. The front will extend from the Straits of Florida to just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula today where it will stall and dissipate through tonight. A remnant trough will drift NW through Sun then dissipate. High pressure and return flow will prevail across the basin through next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers prevails across the Yucatan Channel and west Caribbean ahead of a surface trough that extends across the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere across the basin, mostly quiet weather prevails. Fresh trades are noted over the south-central Caribbean south of 14N between 68W-75W, while moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Winds will pulse fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean, expanding in coverage to the entire central Caribbean, and offshore of Honduras and in the lee of Cuba by early next week as high pressure N of the area build southward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next week. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical N Atlantic by next week. Potential remains for showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, with slight risk of flooding by late Sunday into Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N75W to 27N80W. No significant convection is noted along the front. To the east, a pre-frontal trough extends from 29N75W to 27N78W with scattered moderate convection within 150 nm east of the trough. Latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong SW winds north of 29N west of 74W. A 1019 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 25N61W. Further east, a pair of surface troughs extend over the central Atlantic. The first extend from a 1013 mb low near 32N42W to 25N50W. The second trough extends from 27N38W to 20N46W. No significant convection is observed along these features at this time. The cold front will continue shifting east today, then stall and dissipating from 27N65W to the central Bahamas by early Sun. High pressure will build in from the NE in the wake of the front with E to SE flow dominating through next week. Expect pulses of fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola mainly at night starting Sun evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA