000 AXNT20 KNHC 270537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 137 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Far Eastern Atlantic Gale: Meteo France is forecasting gale force winds today, near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir. Gale force winds are likely occurring now and should last until about 27/0000 UTC. Please see the Meteo France high seas forecast at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered showers prevail within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system extends across the southeastern portion of the basin. It was analyzed as a cold front from 26N82W to 22N90W, then becomes stationary from that point to 18N94W. No significant convection is related to these fronts at this time. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N87W to 19N89W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 130 nm east of the trough affecting the Yucatan Channel. Surface ridging is building across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 28N93W. The front will extend from the Straits of Florida to just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula overnight where it will stall and dissipate through Sat night. A remnant trough will drift NW through Sun before dissipating. High pressure and return flow will prevail across the basin through next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection prevails across the Yucatan Channel ahead of a surface trough that extends across the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, mostly quiet weather prevails. Fresh trades are noted over the central Caribbean between 66W-72W with moderate winds elsewhere. Winds will pulse fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean, expanding in coverage to the entire central Caribbean, and offshore of Honduras and in the lee of Cuba by early next week as high pressure N of the area build southward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next week. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical N Atlantic by next week. Conditions appear favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of Hispaniola by late Sunday into Tuesday. An upper-level trough will approach the region from the northwest Sunday, then linger in the area into mid-week. While the strongest forcing and greatest moisture content should remain just north of Hispaniola, portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic could see 1-3 inches of rain per day, especially Monday and Tuesday, possibly leading to some isolated flash flooding. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N79W to 28N80W. No significant convection is noted along the front. To the east, a pre-frontal trough extends from 32N75W to 29N77W with scattered moderate convection within 150 nm east of the trough. Latest ASCAT pass depicts strong to near-gale SW winds north of 28N west of 75W. A 1019 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 25N62W. Further east, a surface trough extends over the central Atlantic from 32N43W to 22N51W with scattered showers mainly north 27N. The cold front will reach from 31N70W to the western Bahamas by Sat morning, then stalling and dissipating from 27N65W to the central Bahamas by early Sun. High pressure will build in from the NE in the wake of the front with E to SE flow dominating through next week. Expect pulses of fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola mainly at night starting Sun evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA