000 AXNT20 KNHC 260550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of N Liberia near 07N11W to near 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 26/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from S Mississippi near 30N89W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N96W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and N Florida N of 28N between 82W-87W. 10-15 kt northerly surface winds are W of the front. 10-20 kt southerly winds are E of the front with strongest winds over the NE Gulf. Light to medium smoke is noted over the W Gulf W of 89W. Expect the cold front to stall over the SE Gulf by early Sat, gradually dissipating through Sat night. Thunderstorms will accompany the front as it moves eastward across the forecast waters. High pres will build in the wake of the front and prevail through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. Isolated moderate convection is over N Colombia and N Venezuela. Scattered showers are over the S Caribbean S of 13N and E of 75W. More scattered showers are over Hispaniola, E Cuba, Costa Rica, and W Panama. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea. Light to medium smoke is noted over the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south central Caribbean, expanding to cover the entire central Caribbean by early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. Fresh to strong winds north of Honduras will diminish Friday afternoon, returning Monday evening, and pulsing again Tuesday evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next week. Conditions are becoming favorable for a heavy rainfall event over Hispaniola on Sunday and Monday. Strong forcing is expected on Monday evening as a subtropical jet maxima streams south of the island. Expect 1-3 inches per day with a maxima of 4-6 inches. Severe convection is expected with a higher risk for the Haitian Peninsula and interior portions of the island. Flash flooding is possible. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 30N69W. Another 1020 mb high is centered near 25N65W. A 1015 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N46W. A surface trough extends S from the low to 22N54W. Scattered showers are from 26N-31N between 44W-50W. The trough in the central Atlantic will dissipate tonight. High pressure on either side of the trough will merge and shift E on Friday ahead of a cold front which will move off NE Florida on Friday evening. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas Saturday morning, then stall from 28N65W to the central Bahamas early Sunday, lifting N as a warm front or remnant trough through the end of the weekend. High pressure will build N of the area early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa