941 AXNT20 KNHC 252352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 752 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N12W to near 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 00N26W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 05N-01N between 12W-24W. Isolated moderate convection is seen within 200 nm of the ITCZ trough west of 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front entered the Gulf from central Louisiana near 26N93W to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. A cluster of thunderstorms is east of the front moving across the waters south of coastal Mississippi and Alabama. This squall line is producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and visibility less than 1 nm. Scattered showers are also seen across the central and eastern Gulf ahead of the front. A 1009 mb low is located in the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W with a pre-frontal trough along the low extending near 23N94W to near 18N94W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are behind the front, with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds ahead of the front. Light southeasterly winds are near the Florida coast due to the ridging from a high centered in the western Atlantic. Expect strong to gale force NW winds near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico for this evening. Thunderstorms continue to move ahead of the front across the north-central and eastern Gulf. The front will stall in the SE Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... High clouds continue to stream across the southern Caribbean. Meanwhile, isolated convection is seen across central Cuba and Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the Gulf of Honduras and north of Colombia. Gentle trades are seen in the rest of the basin. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south central Caribbean, expanding to cover the entire central Caribbean by early next week as the pres gradient tightens. Fresh to strong winds north of Honduras will diminish by Friday afternoon, returning Monday evening, and pulsing again Tuesday evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 30N70W. A surface trough is seen near 27N48W stretching southwest to near 22N57W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of this trough 30N-27N between 46W-50W. To the southeast of this trough, another elongated trough is seen in the central Atlantic near 27N38W to near 17N56W. Showers are seen within 150 nm south of the trough. A surface trough is also present over the central Bahamas 25N72W to near 20N74W. A trough in the central Atlantic will dissipate tonight. High pressure on either side of the trough will merge and shift E on Friday ahead of a cold front which will move off NE Florida on Friday evening. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas Saturday morning, then stall from 28N65W to the central Bahamas early Sunday, lifting N as a warm front or remnant trough through the end of the weekend. High pressure will build N of the area early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR