000 AXNT20 KNHC 251058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 658 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to near 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N-05N between 13W-18W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 01S-06S between 25W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1007 mb low is centered over E Texas near 33N94W. A cold front extends SW to S Texas. Radar imagery shows widely scattered moderate convection over the NW Gulf of Mexico W of a line from Lafayette Louisiana to Brownsville Texas. A 1019 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 29N72W producing 10-20 kt SE return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Weakest winds are over the NE Gulf, and strongest winds are over the W Gulf W of 90W. Light to medium smoke is over the SW Gulf W of a line from Corpus Christi Texas to Merida Mexico. In the upper levels, a sharp trough is over Texas, while a ridge is over the Gulf. A cold front will move off the Texas coast this morning. Thunderstorms will accompany the front as it shifts east across the forecast waters before stalling over the SE Gulf Fri night and dissipate by Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 08N74W. Isolated moderate convection is over N Colombia and NW Venezuela. Scattered showers are over the SE Caribbean S of 16N and E of 70W. More scattered showers are over Hispaniola and E Cuba. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean Sea. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong at night off the coast of Colombia each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Trade winds will increase early next week as high pressure builds north of the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 29N72W. A 1016 mb low is near 25N64W, depicted by a swirl of low clouds. A 1014 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 30N56W. A surface trough extends S from the low to 22N60W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough. Another 1013 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N48W. Scattered showers are well E of the low N of 27N between 35W-41W. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 22N44W to 14N59W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. High pressure over the forecast waters will retreat eastward today ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast Fri evening. The front will move east and stall from Bermuda to the northern Florida Keys by late Sat, then dissipate as it moves slowly northward through early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa