000 AXNT20 KNHC 242348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 748 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N13W to near 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 04S31W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 01S-06S between 19W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen along the monsoon trough from 04N-01S between 18W-08W. GULF OF MEXICO... A digging mid-upper level trough is causing upper level diffluence and divergence across the NW Gulf of Mexico ahead of a low pressure system bringing a strong cold front across the southern Plains. This is causing scattered showers across most of the Gulf with the exception of the southern portion of the basin. At the surface, a 1019 mb high located in the western Atlantic is causing ridging across the eastern Gulf. Ahead of the low pressure system in the southern Plains, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds are seen in the western basin with light to gentle east- southerly winds are in the eastern Gulf. High pressure over the eastern Gulf will shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast Thursday morning. Thunderstorms will accompany the front as it shifts east early Friday. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong, with gusty winds and frequent lightning. The front will become stationary from west central Florida to northeast Yucatan by late Friday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front over the northern Gulf coast through Sunday as the front gradually dissipates by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moist air with some showers are seen across the southeast Caribbean particularly along the Windward Islands. Low-topped showers are seen across the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. The western portion of the basin has calm conditions. Light to gentle trades are seen across most of the Caribbean, with gentle to moderate northeasterly winds in the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds across the south central and eastern Caribbean will slowly diminish into Sunday as high pressure north of the area weakens. Trade winds will increase again early next week as the high pressure builds again north of the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 mb high is over the western Atlantic near 30N74W with a surface trough to the east of the high, stretching from near 31N66W to the SE Bahamas. A 1014 mb low is still lingering across the central Atlantic near 30N57W with a surface trough extending along the low from 31N60W to 31N49W. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen 185 nm south of this low. Another surface trough is seen from near 24N42W stretching southwestward to near 13N57W. Scattered showers are seen to the west of this trough. A surface trough in the western Atlantic will dissipate overnight. Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida from Thursday night and Friday ahead of a cold front moving off the coast Friday evening. The front will move east and stall from Bermuda to the northern Florida Keys by late Saturday, then dissipate as it moves slowly northward through early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR