000 AXNT20 KNHC 232348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 748 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to near 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03N43W. Along the monsoon trough, isolated strong convection is seen from 05N-03N between 12W-17W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen near the ITCZ from 02S-06S between 22W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... Showers are moving off the western Gulf coast and into the basin. Most of the activity is west of 88W. Otherwise, high pressure over the southeast U.S. is ridging across the Gulf bringing benign conditions to the eastern and southern Gulf. Light to moderate easterlies are seen, with moderate to fresh winds in the west- central Gulf. High pressure will prevail across the area through Wednesday, then retreat eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf by Thursday. The front will reach the far eastern Gulf by Friday evening, where it will become stationary and weaken to a trough Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with this frontal system. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-upper level trough digging across the western Atlantic also stretches into the central Caribbean. This is ushering in moisture and showers from Central America into the southern and central Caribbean. Otherwise, isolated convection is seen in southeastern Cuba and across Hispaniola. Low-topped showers are also seen across the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle trade are occurring across the eastern and western portions of the basin, with moderate trades near the Greater Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the south central and eastern Caribbean through tonight then slowly diminish thereafter as high pressure north of the area weakens. A cold front may move into the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week into next weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front continues to linger across the western Atlantic near 31N68W and extends southward to near 24N72W. A trough continues from the 24N72W point to western Hispaniola near 19N74W. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the front. The 1014 mb low in the central Atlantic continues to meander near 28N53W. A large area of scattered moderate convection is seen from 31N to 26W between 37W-49W. Otherwise, ridging is seen across the rest of the basin with gentle to moderate winds. Near the low, moderate to fresh southerly winds are observed. The stationary front and trough will gradually dissipate through tonight. The next cold front will move off the southeastern United States coast by Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, are expected to affect much of the area north of 27N Friday through late Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR