000 AXNT20 KNHC 230541 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N86W with fair weather. 10-20 kt surface winds are over the Gulf with the weakest winds around the high, and strongest winds over the W Gulf. High pressure will remain across the area through Wed, then begin to slide eastward in response to a cold front that will move across the central United States. The cold front, possibly attendant by low pressure, will move over the far western Gulf early on Thu, then slowly move across the rest of the NW Gulf through Thu night and reach the far eastern Gulf by Fri evening. It will then become stationary and weaken to a trough Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with this frontal system. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate convection is over E Panama, N Colombia, and W Venezuela. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. More scattered showers are over central Honduras, N Nicaragua, W Panama, and NW Venezuela. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence prevails. High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the south central and eastern Caribbean through Tuesday night. The trade winds will slowly diminish thereafter as the high pressure dissipates. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week into next weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a stationary front enters the basin near 31N69W to 26N71W, then transitions into a surface trough from that point to Hispaniola near 20N72W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. In the central Atlantic, a 1012 mb low is centered near 25N52W. A surface trough extends from the low to 21N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NE quadrant of the low mainly north 25N between 42W- 50W. The stationary front and trough will gradually dissipate through Wednesday. Low pressure may track across the southern United States or Gulf of Mexico late in the week, with its attendant cold front moving off the southeastern United States coast by early Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, associated with this system are expected to affect much of the northwestern part of the area Fri through Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa