000 AXNT20 KNHC 222331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 731 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered over southeast U.S.A. As a result, fair weather covers the entire Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the whole basin. High pressure will remain across the area through mid-week, then begin to slide eastward in response to a cold front that will move across the central United States. The cold front will move over the far western Gulf early on Thursday, then slowly move across the rest of the NW Gulf through Thursday night and reach the far eastern Gulf by Friday evening. It will then become stationary and weaken to a through Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with this frontal system. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level zonal westerly flow covers the Caribbean. Moderate trade winds cover much of the basin, except for fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles and adjacent waters. High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the south central and eastern Caribbean through Tuesday night. The trade winds will slowly diminish thereafter as the high pressure dissipates. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week into next weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a stationary front enters the basin near 31N69W to 25N73W, then transitions into a surface trough from that point to 22N75W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 150 nm east of the front mainly north of 25N. In the central Atlantic, a 1011 mb low is centered near 25N50W. A surface trough extends from the low to 21N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NE quadrant of the low mainly north 24N between 42W-51W. Due to the pressure gradient between the 1012 mb low and a high pressure centered north of the area, moderate to fresh winds are depicted in scatterometer data over the northern semicircle of the low. The stationary front and trough will gradually dissipate through Wednesday. Low pressure may track across the southern United States or Gulf of Mexico late in the week, with its attendant cold front moving off the southeastern United States coast by early weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, associated with this system are expected to affect much of the northwestern part of the area Friday through Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA