000
AXNT20 KNHC 220541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N13W. 
The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil 
near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-06S between
30W-44W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the northeast Gulf near 29N85W. 
Light to gentle winds are noted near the high center. Moderate to 
locally fresh return flow continues west of 92W. Fair weather is
noted over the entire Gulf. 

High pressure will prevail across the basin through midweek 
before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move 
into the NW Gulf on Thursday, pushing across the basin through 
Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E Panama,
N Colombia, and W Venezuela. Scattered showers are over the
Leeward and Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, E Cuba, and
Jamaica. More scattered showers are over central Honduras and N
Nicaragua. Light to gentle winds are across the northwest basin, 
while moderate to fresh trades are across the rest of the 
Caribbean. 

High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain pulses of 
strong winds off Colombia and moderate to fresh trade winds 
elsewhere into mid week. Trade winds will slowly diminish 
thereafter as the high pressure dissipates. A cold front may move 
into the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the 
week into next weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a 1022 mb high is centered off the coast
of N Florida near 30N80W. A stationary front enters the waters 
near 31N71W and extends south to the central Bahamas near 23N75W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. 
Farther east, a 1014 mb low is near 25N48W with a dying 
stationary front to the east of this low from 31N40W to 25N40W to
17N50W. Showers are seen in the vicinity of the low, in addition 
to the dying stationary front.

The stationary front in the western Atlantic will gradually 
dissipate through Monday, with remnants lingering through mid 
week. NE swell will propagate into the waters N of the Virgin 
Islands through the early part of the week. The next cold front 
may move off NE Florida by the very end of the week into next 
weekend. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa