000 AXNT20 KNHC 210534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters off the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 01N29W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. No significant convection is noted north of the Equator. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1020 mb located near 28N93W dominates the Gulf region. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the eastern Gulf where a recent scatterometer pass indicates the presence of fresh W to NW winds, particularly N of 26N E of 87W. Light to gentle winds are seen near the high pressure. This system will become centered northeast of the area by the end of the weekend into early next week allowing for return flow to dominate the basin. The high will weaken by the end of next week as the next cold front attempts to move into the western Gulf. Diurnal surface trough will develop near the NW Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours and drift westward across the SW Gulf where it will eventually dissipate during the morning hours. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will accompany this trough each night into the early morning hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 0300 UTC, a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. Mainly low clouds with some shower activity are associated with the frontal boundary, forecast to dissipate today. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade winds flow are noted elsewhere across the basin. Mainly moderate northerly winds follows the front. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted per scatterometer data over the eastern and the south-central Caribbean, and also across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and the Tropical North Atlantic, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. Trades will slowly diminish through Wednesday night, then increasing back slightly towards the end of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N73W then continues SW across the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. A band of showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms is related to the front. Most of the convective activity is currently affecting the central Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed W of the front, and runs from 29N78W to near Havana, Cuba. Some cloudiness with isolated showers is noted near the trough axis. The front will reach from near 31N71W to the SE Bahamas this afternoon where it will stall and gradually dissipate. The remnants of the front will linger along 70W through much of the upcoming week. Farther east, another cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N36W and stretches southwest, then west along 23N40W to 21N50W to 22N60W. This front is associated with a 1018 mb low pressure system located near 32N41W. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is noted mainly on the west side of the low center. A reinforcing trough behind the cold front extends from the low to 27N41W to 24N45W to 25N55W. This low is producing gale force winds just N of the forecast area, and fresh to strong northerly winds over the forecast waters N of 27N between 42W and 48W based on recent scatterometer data. The low pressure is forecast to move SW into the discussion area, and is forecast to meander near 26N50W over the next 48-72 hours. The associated cold front will dissipate over the next 24 hours. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the north will keep an area of fresh to strong winds roughly N of 26N between 40W and 60W today and Mon. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR