000 AXNT20 KNHC 202342 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 742 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters off the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 01N29W to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-07N between 26W to 39W. Isolated convection is also seen approximately 200 nautical miles south of the monsoon trough east of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough moving south across the eastern Gulf and central Florida enters the waters near Fort Myers, Florida and extends into the central Gulf near 24N87W. Some isolated showers are moving east- southeast in the northeast Gulf and approaching the west coast of Florida. Otherwise, benign conditions prevail as a 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 24N95W and is ridging across most of the basin. Light to gentle winds are seen near the high pressure, with moderate to fresh west-northwest winds are in the eastern Gulf. The reinforcing frontal trough will shift east of the basin tonight while high pressure across the western Gulf spreads eastward. The high pressure will become centered northeast of the area by the end of the weekend into early next week allowing for return flow to dominate the basin. The high will weaken by the end of next week as the next cold front attempts to move into the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front moving across central Cuba enters the Caribbean near 22N80W and stretches southwest to near 20N82W. From 20N82W, the boundary stalls and extends to northern Honduras near 16N86W. Showers can be seen within 70 nm of the boundary in the northwest Caribbean. Another set of showers are moving across the north- central Caribbean in addition to Jamaica and the eastern half of Cuba. Showers are also moving across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and low-topped showers are also moving across the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be seen west of the front, while fresh to moderate trades prevail across the central and south Caribbean, particularly north of Colombia. The stationary front over the northwest Caribbean will dissipate on Sunday. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic, with the exception of strong breeze NE winds north of Colombia. Trades will slowly diminish through Wednesday night, then increasing back slightly towards the end of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front continues to move east across the western Atlantic from 31N74W to central Cuba near 23N79W. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the front extending south to the central Bahamas. A trough is also moving across the western Atlantic right off the Florida coast from 30N79W to near 28N81W. There are showers moving along and 60 nm ahead of the trough. Farther east, another cold front enters the waters near 31N36W and stretches southwest to near 22N47W. From 22N47W, the front stalls and extends westward to near 22N62W. A reinforcing trough behind the cold front extends from near 31N39W to 26N55W. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms are seen within the vicinity of both the trough and cold front. A line of light showers is also seen moving along the trough and the rest of the cold front. Near the stationary front, slightly more organized area of showers is seen. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Strong to near gale force southerly winds ahead of the front northeast of the Bahamas will weaken through tonight. The front will reach from near 31N71W to the southeast Bahamas on Sunday afternoon where it will stall and gradually dissipate. The remnants of the front will linger along 70W through much of the upcoming week. NE swell will move into the waters north of the Virgin Islands through early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR