000 AXNT20 KNHC 201054 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...A cold front is along 31N78W to 24N81W. Expect S-to-SW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, N of 28N between 75W and the cold front. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to the Equator along 23W, to 06S31W, to the coast of Brazil near 05S39W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 300 nm to 400 nm to the SE of the monsoon trough between 08W and 13W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N southward from 40W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front from six hours ago, has exited from the Gulf of Mexico completely. Part of the cold front reaches 27N79W, skirting the SE coast of Florida, beyond the coast of Cuba near 23N82W, and toward the Gulf of Honduras in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Virtually all the precipitation that was occurring with the cold front is outside the area of the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that some rainshowers may be lingering in the extreme eastern and southeastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Cold air cumulus clouds are following the cold front. A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb central Texas high pressure center to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is along the coast of Mexico near 21N98W. The current cold front, which has moved across the Gulf of Mexico, has moved to the SE of the area now. Enhanced winds and seas in the north and north central waters will decrease today. Surface high pressure, that is building in the wake of the front, will prevail through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is skirting the SE coast of Florida, beyond the coast of Cuba near 23N82W, and toward the Gulf of Honduras in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A squall line is to the east of the cold front, within 20 nm to the east of the front on the southern end near 21N, and within 75 nm to the east of the cold front near 31N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 82W westward, and in central Honduras. Rainshowers are possible, in clusters of broken low level clouds, from 15N northward from 81W eastward. The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough passing through NW Cuba to northern Costa Rica. The GFS model for the surface shows a broad trough along roughly the same position. The current cold front, that is in the far NW Caribbean Sea, will shift eastward slowly, before dissipating on Sunday. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea and the tropical N Atlantic Ocean, with the exception of strong NE winds N of Colombia. The trade winds will diminish slowly through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N78W to 27N79W, skirting the SE coast of Florida, beyond the coast of Cuba near 23N82W, and toward the Gulf of Honduras in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A squall line is to the east of the cold front, within 20 nm to the east of the front on the southern end near 21N, and within 75 nm to the east of the cold front near 31N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 150 nm to the east of the squall line, from 27N northward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 220 nm to the east of the squall line, from 23N to 27N. This front is the same cold front that is associated with the gale-force winds that are the subject of the SPECIAL FEATURES section. A cold front is in the central Atlantic Ocean, passing through 32N37W to 26N40W to 23N51W. The front is stationary from 23N51W to 25N62W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm to the east of the front, and within 320 nm to the west of the front from 27N northward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 90 nm to the south of the stationary front between 55W and 60W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere within 150 nm to the south of the stationary front between 59W and 61W. The current cold front will continue eastward. Gale-force winds, N of 28N east of the front, will prevail through this afternoon before diminishing. The cold front will reach from near 31N71W to the SE Bahamas on Sunday afternoon, where it will stall and dissipate gradually. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt