000 AXNT20 KNHC 192340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 740 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2318 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A squall line continues to move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A cold front follows the front from central Florida to just off the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds to gale force accompany the squall line and front, impacting much of the north central and northeast Gulf north of 23N and within 90 nm east of the front. Seas are building to 9 to 13 ft over the northeast Gulf as well. Winds and seas will diminish below gale force later this evening as the front moves out of the Gulf. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning... Southerly winds are minimal gale force off the coast of northeast Florida, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the coast tonight. As the front continues moving eastward, gale force southerly winds will continue west of 78W and diminish by Saturday afternoon. Seas will build to 14 ft in the area of gale force winds through the evening, then gradually subside overnight as winds diminish. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N14W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02S27W to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed moving south of the monsoon trough from 05N-03S between 12W-19W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted north of the ITCZ from 01S to 05S between 31W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, The strong squall line continues to move across the southeast Gulf and stretching into the northwest Caribbean. The cold front follows behind the squall line with another, albeit less severe, line of showers and thunderstorms moving right along the front. The front enters the Gulf right off the coast of Clearwater, Florida to the northeast Yucatan coast. The squall line is seen stretching from Fort Myers, Florida to the Caribbean. See above for more information on the gale warning in the Gulf. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high is off Mexican coast near 21N96W with ridging across the western and central Gulf. Cold air cumulus follows the cold front, but otherwise clear conditions are seen across the western half of the basin. The cold front will exit the Gulf tonight and winds will quickly subside on Saturday. Weak high pressure will subsequently continue building over the Gulf promoting quiescent conditions from Sunday through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2100 UTC, the squall line impacting the southeastern Gulf is now entering the northwest Caribbean just to the north of Cozumel, Mexico. Frequent lightning and gusty winds are expected with this squall line. Ahead of the strong cold front approaching the Caribbean, gentle to moderate southerly winds are seen in the northwest basin. Streamer showers can be seen across this area ahead of the squall line which is moving across Jamaica and Cuba. In the central and eastern Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades are seen with low-topped showers moving across the Lesser Antilles and south of Puerto Rico. Local observations and satellite imagery also show areas of smoke north of Honduras. Seas are 4 to 6 ft overall, except to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 8 to 10 ft off Colombia. A cold front, strong for this time of year, will reach the Yucatan Channel by this evening and push to the Gulf of Honduras Saturday before dissipating on Sunday. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, some may be severe, will precede the front this evening through early Saturday. The Bermuda High will weaken over the next few days, causing trades to diminish through Wednesday night. No significant long-period swell are anticipated to reach the tropical North Atlantic zones through at least Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Gale force winds are seen off the northeast Florida coast in response to an approaching cold front over north-central Florida. As of 2100 UTC, a squall line is seen from 31N79W to 27N80W. The second squall line is beginning to enter the Atlantic just to the south of Daytona Beach, Florida. Farther east of the gale winds, a cold front enters the waters near 31N39W and stretches to the southwest to 26N47W. Showers with some embedded thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm of the front. The tail-end of this boundary has stalled and stretches from 26N47W to 25N53W. Fresh NW winds are noted in scatterometer data adjacent to the stationary front associated with a cluster of showers and thunderstorms from 26N- 23N between 53W-62W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by high pressure. The front will reach the Atlantic waters tonight and should extend from 31N74W to the central Bahamas by Saturday afternoon, from 31N71W to the SE Bahamas Sunday afternoon, and becoming stationary near the same location Monday afternoon. It is expected to dissipate on Tuesday into Wednesday. Numerous showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the front. There is potential for severe thunderstorms associated with the front north of 27N tonight and Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR