000 AXNT20 KNHC 191755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 155 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... As of 1700 UTC, a squall line continues to move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, currently reaching from near Tampa Bat to the south central Gulf near 23N88W. A cold front follows the front from Apalachicola Florida to just off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds to gale force accompany the squall line and front, impacting much of the north central and northeast Gulf north of 25N and east of 90W. Seas are building to 10 to 15 ft over the northeast Gulf as well. Winds and seas will diminish below gale force during the over night hours as the front exits east of the Gulf. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning... Southerly winds are increasing to minimal gale force off the coast of northeast Florida, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the coast tonight. The gales will gradually diminish overnight and veer more to the west. Seas will build to 16 ft in the area of gale force winds through the evening, then gradually subside overnight as winds diminish. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed off the coast of West Africa from 02N to 07N between 12W and 14W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 01S to 01N, west of 45W to the coast of Brazil near the mouth of the Amazon River. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold fronts, squall line, convection and gales over the Gulf of Mexico are described extensively in the section above. Clear skies, follow the front over the western Gulf. The front also cleared the persistent area of smoke and haze that has enveloped much of the western Gulf over the past several days. Strong NW winds persist over the northwest Gulf where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Winds and seas will diminish across the western Gulf through the evening. For the forecast, weak high pressure will build over the Gulf in the wake of the front. Fresh to moderate southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf by Sun. Otherwise the high pressure will promote quiescent conditions Sun through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent observations and scatterometer data show moderate to fresh E to SE winds reaching from the tropical Atlantic waters west of 55W through the central Caribbean, south of strong high pressure centered over the western Atlantic. Observations from Curacao are indicative of strong trade winds along the northern coast off the coast of western Venezuela through the coast of central Colombia. Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted across the northwest Caribbean, except for moderate to fresh SE winds through the Gulf of Honduras. Local observations and satellite imagery also show areas of smoke north of Honduras. Seas are 4 to 6 ft overall, except to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 8 to 10 ft off Colombia. Regional radar composites are showing a few trade wind showers across the Windward Islands and south of Puerto Rico. For the forecast, high pres northeast of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through Sun, diminishing Sun night into early next week as the high weakens. A cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean tonight, then weaken and become stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front tonight and Sat, highest near the Yucatan Channel. Increased showers and thunderstorms are also expected with the front in the NW Caribbean tonight into early Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In addition to the gales off the northeast coast of Florida described above, farther to the east fresh NW winds are noted in scatterometer data north of a stationary front reaching along 24N between 50W and 60W. A few showers and thunderstorms are also evident along the front. A cold front is drifting southward toward the stalled boundary, and will merge later today. Swell of 8 to 9 ft is evident north of 22N between east of 65W. For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the front will extend from 31N73W across the central Bahamas to Cuba Sat evening, from 31N69W to the southeast Bahamas Sun evening, then stall and dissipate Mon night through Tue night. Gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front north of 28N between 70W and the east coast of northern Florida. Numerous showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the front beginning this afternoon east of Florida. Elsewhere, a cold front reaches from 31N41W to the stationary front starting at 24N50W. A few showers are noted ahead of the front north of 28N. High pressure dominates the remainder of the subtropical eastern Atlantic north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted south of 20N. Seas are 6 to 9 ft primarily in NW swell across the area. No other significant showers or thunderstorms are observed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen