000 AXNT20 KNHC 182357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 757 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong, late season cold front is moving across the north- central Gulf and extends southwest into the Bay of Campeche. Clusters of thunderstorms accompany the front off the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected east of the front over the north central Gulf through late tonight. The cooler and drier air will funnel southward along the mountainous terrain of the Mexico, supporting sustained gale force winds off the central coast of Veracruz this evening through Friday morning. After the front passes, brief gale force winds will occur in the northeast Gulf on Friday afternoon. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning... The cold front is expected to move off the Florida Peninsula Friday night. Gale force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front N of 27N and W of 70W by Friday afternoon along with numerous thunderstorms. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone at 08N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 04S29W to 05S38W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ from 02N-10S and west of 20W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A squall line is swiftly moving across the northern and central Gulf--currently extending south of Mississippi to near 27N91W. South of this feature, the cold front enters the Gulf from south- central Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico. A 1006 mb low has developed along the front and is near 28N94W. Frequent lightning and gale force winds are associated with this squall line, along with limited visibility down to 0.5-3 nm with the lowest visibilities currently 90 nm south and east of New Orleans, Louisiana. Some of the visibility limitations could also be due to areas of smoke originating from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and northern Central America encompassing much of the western Gulf. Gale force northwesterly winds are seen behind the front especially in the northwestern Gulf. Gale force winds are also developing in the southwest Gulf near Veracruz. Otherwise, moderate to fresh southeast winds are seen east of the front in the eastern half of the basin. See above for more details on the gale-force winds expected. A significant cold front will move through the basin through Friday evening with a strong line of convection out ahead of it. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico late tonight, then from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Friday afternoon, moving southeast of the basin Friday evening. Strong to near gale force winds are expected on either side of the front, mainly in the northern, west central, and southwest Gulf. High pres will build in from the west in the wake of the front this weekend with return flow expected by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Showers are seen moving west across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Showers can also be seen across the Lesser Antilles. High pressure north of the area continues to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the Leeward and Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean, fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras, and moderate SE winds elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. Strong subsidence continues to suppress any development of thunderstorms. High pressure northeast of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sunday, diminishing Sunday night into early next week as the high weakens. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish Friday afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by Friday night, then weaken and become stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Saturday night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front Friday night and Saturday, highest near the Yucatan Channel. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends to the southwest from 31N44W to 25N60W. A dying stationary front extended to the west from 25N60W to 25N67W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N46W to 25N51W. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are within 70 nm of the front. Scattered showers are also moving north of the Cape Verde Islands toward the coasts of Morocco and Mauritania. Otherwise, high pressure dominates across the waters due to a 1030 mb high off the New England coast near 41N62W, and a 1025 mb high near 33N25W. See above for the expected gale-force winds. Winds and seas will increase over much of the NW waters tonight and Friday ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida peninsula Friday night. The front will extend from 31N73W across the central Bahamas to Cuba Saturday evening, and from 31N69W to the SE Bahamas Sunday evening, then stall and dissipate Monday night through Tuesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR