000 AXNT20 KNHC 181731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong, late season cold front extends from Johnson Bayou Louisiana to near Barra del Tordo along the coast of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas. Clusters of thunderstorms accompany the front off the coast of eastern Texas and southwest Louisiana. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected east of the front over the north central Gulf this evening. The cooler and drier air will funnel southward along the mountainous terrain of the Mexico, supporting sustained gale force winds off the central coast of Veracruz later today as well. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning... The cold front is expected to move off the Florida Peninsula Fri night. Gale force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front N of 27N by Friday afternoon along with numerous thunderstorms. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone at 08N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 03S30W to 03S40W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of the ITCZ to 04N between 22W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging over the eastern Gulf is exiting eastward ahead of an approaching strong cold front currently reaching from Johnson's Bayou Louisiana to 1004 mb low pressure near 28.5N 94W, to Barras del Tordo in Tamaulipas Mexico. A well developed line of thunderstorms extends along the front north of 27N. Of interest, the movement of the front is characterized on satellite imagery as an undular bore, with bands of roll clouds on the leading edge of the frontal boundary off the coast south Texas and northeast Mexico. Observations from platforms in the northwest and north central ahead of the front have been reporting visibilities limited to 1 to 3 nm in fog and haze. Some of the visibility limitations could also be due to areas of smoke originating from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and northern Central America encompassing much of the western Gulf. Seas are reaching 8 ft off the Texas coast in the area of stronger winds. 4 to 6 ft seas are observed elsewhere across the Gulf. For the forecast, the front will reach from southwest Louisiana to south Texas this evening, from Mobile, Alabama to the central Bay of Campeche Fri morning, and move southeast of the area Fri night. Strong to near gale force winds are expected on either side of the front. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the cold front. High pres will build in from the west in the wake of the front this weekend with return flow expected by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the area continues to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the Leeward and Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean, fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras, and moderate SE winds elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. A scatterometer pass from 14 UTC indicated strong winds in the usual places off central coast of Colombia, and near Cabo Beata off the southern coast of Hispaniola. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in most areas across the Caribbean, except for 7 to 10 ft off Colombia. Trade wind convergence is supporting a few showers through Trinidad and Tobago, and along the north coast of Jamaica, but otherwise no significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. For the forecast, the high pres over the western Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean the next several days. This will weaken somewhat as a cold front moves into the northwest Caribbean Fri night. The front will weaken and become stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front Fri night and Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N46W to 27N55W, and continues as a weakening stationary front to 26N66W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along the front east of 55W. High pressure centered off the New England coast behind the front extends southward into the waters west of 50W. A second high pressure south of the Azores area dominates the eastern subtropical and tropical north Atlantic east of 50W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted south of 15N. Farther east, a large cluster of thunderstorms is moving through the Gulf of Guinea. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted elsewhere over the region except for south of the Equator near the ITCZ. For the forecast, winds and seas will increase over much of the region off northeast Florida tonight and Fri ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida peninsula Fri night. The front will extend from 31N73W across the central Bahamas to Cuba Sat evening, and from 31N69W to the southeast Bahamas Sun evening, then stall and dissipate by Mon night. Gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front north of 27N. Numerous showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen