000 AXNT20 KNHC 180518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 118 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf this morning along with a pre-frontal squall line. Strong to near gale force winds are expected ahead of the front with gusts to gale force in the squall line in the northern Gulf zones. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely at times with the squall line into Friday as it moves from west to east. Strong to near gale force winds are likely behind the front across much of the basin. A brief period of gales is also likely late today and this evening south of 21N and west of 95W. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front is expected to move off the Florida Peninsula Fri night. Gale force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front N of 27N by Friday afternoon along with numerous thunderstorms. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone at 08N13W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03S23W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is seen from 08S-01N between 18W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high over Georgia extends a ridge over the eastern Gulf. A low pressure system over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico is moving east. The pressure gradient is increasing over the western Gulf, where the latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong SE winds, as of 18/0320 UTC. Some reduced visibility due to smoke is possible over the W Gulf south of 29N and west of 90W. No significant showers or thunderstorms are present, but a pre- frontal squall line, currently moving eastward over Texas, is expected to reach the NW Gulf after 0900 UTC this morning. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf this morning along with a pre-frontal squall line, bringing gusts to gale force along with strong to severe thunderstorms. See section above for details. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the squall line and cold front. The cold front will reach from SW Louisiana to S Texas this evening, from Mobile Alabama to the central Bay of Campeche Fri morning, moving SE of the area Fri night. High pres will build in from the W in the wake of the front this weekend with return flow expected by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The weather is quiet with dry air and subsidence noted over the basin, due to mid-level ridging. The recent ASCAT data shows fresh trades in the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong to locally near gale near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are over the western Caribbean, except for fresh in the Gulf of Honduras. High pres NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean through the next several days. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras today into early Fri. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move into the NW Caribbean Fri night, then weaken and become stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front Fri night into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends over the Atlantic from 31N51W to 26N73W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm of the front east of 62W. No strong winds or high seas are associated with this front. A 1024 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near 32N31W. Farther east, a cold front over Morocco and Western Sahara extends over the Atlantic from 25N15W to 21N33W to 23N40W. No significant convection is seen with this front. While only moderate winds exist in association with the front, seas up to 10 ft are present from NW swell. The weakening stationary front from 27N65W to 26N73W will dissipate this morning with high pres building down from the N. Winds and seas will increase over much of the NW waters tonight into Fri ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida peninsula Fri night. Gale force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front N of 27N. Numerous showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the front which is forecast to reach from 31N73W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Sat evening, and from 31N69W to the SE Bahamas Sun evening where it will stall and dissipate into early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen