000 AXNT20 KNHC 172325 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 725 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected ahead of the front in the northern Gulf zones, with frequent gusts to gale force behind the front across much of the basin. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front is expected to move off the Florida Peninsula Fri night. Gale force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front N of 27N. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone at 08N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 01S20W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is located within 120 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high is over the western Atlantic offshore of South Carolina with a ridge extending over the SE United States. With the pressure gradient being modest over the Gulf, SE winds are generally 10 to 15 kt. No significant showers or thunderstorms are present. There exists some reduced visibility over the W Gulf W of 90W with smoke. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected ahead of the front in the northern Gulf zones, with frequent gusts to gale force behind the front across much of the basin. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany the cold front which will reach from SW Louisiana to S Texas Thu evening, from Mobile, Alabama to the central Bay of Campeche Fri morning, moving SE of the area Fri night. High pres will build in from the W in the wake of the front this weekend with return flow expected by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1021 mb high over the western Atlantic offshore of South Carolina is inducing a moderate N-S pressure gradient over the Caribbean. 10-20 kt E trade winds cover most of the Caribbean with the exception of NE winds up to 30 kt near the coast of Colombia. A surface trough extends from central Cuba west- southwestward to near 19N85W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the trough axis. Additionally, widely scattered showers are impacting the Windward and Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over N Colombia. High pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean through the next several days. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras Thu into early Fri. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move into the NW Caribbean Fri night, then weaken and become stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front Fri night into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends over the Atlantic from 31N50W west- southwestward to 27N70W to central Cuba near 22N79W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm along the front north of 26N and scattered showers are located within 60 nm along the front south of 26N. No strong winds or high seas are associated with this front. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 30N37W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N09W southwestward to 25N20W to 23N37W. Scattered showers exist within 60 nm of the front. While no significant winds exist in association with the front, seas up to 9 ft are present from NW swell. The W Atlantic front will dissipate tonight with high pressure building down from the N. Winds and seas will increase over much of the NW waters Thu night into Fri ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida peninsula Fri night. Gale force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front N of 27N. Numerous showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany the front which is forecast to reach from 31N73W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Sat evening, and from 31N69W to the SE Bahamas Sun evening where it will stall dissipate into early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa