000 AXNT20 KNHC 171700 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu morning. Very strong winds and building seas are expected both ahead of and behind the front. A brief period of minimal gale conditions is expected near Veracruz Mexico Thu evening, and gales are also likely in the NE Gulf south of the Florida panhandle on Fri. Peak seas should reach around 12 ft on late Fri. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, will accompany the cold front forecast to reach from Mobile, Alabama to the central Bay of Campeche Thu night, and move southeast of the area by Fri night. Please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone at 07N13W 00N24W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is located within 60 nm north and 180 nm south of the ITCZ east of 17W and from 25W to 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high over the western Atlantic offshore of South Carolina has a ridge extending over the SE United States. With the pressure gradient being modest over the Gulf, SE winds are generally 10 to 15 kt. No significant showers or thunderstorms are present. There exists some reduced visibility over the NW Gulf with patchy fog this morning, though this should diminish later today. See Special Features above for Gulf of Mexico forecast discussion through Fri night. Looking ahead, winds will diminish to below 20 kt on Sat and Sun while veering to E and SE as high pressure builds over the SE United States. Peaks seas should drop below 8 ft over the NE Gulf by late Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1023 mb high over the western Atlantic offshore of South Carolina is inducing a moderate N-S pressure gradient over the Caribbean today. 10-20 kt E trade winds cover most of the Caribbean with the exception of NE winds up to 30 kt near the coast of Colombia. A surface trough extends from central Cuba west-southwestward to near 20N83W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the trough axis. Additionally, widely scattered showers are impacting the Greater Antilles and the Leeward Islands. High pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sun. Highest winds will be near the coast of Colombia at night, with building seas of 9 to 10 ft. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move into the NW Caribbean Fri night, then weaken and become stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front Fri night into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends over the Atlantic from 32N51W west- southwestward to the central coast of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm along the front north of 28N and scattered showers are located within 60 nm along the front south of 28N. No strong winds or high seas are associated with this front. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N10W southwestward to 24N33W. Scattered showers exist within 60 nm of the front. While no significant winds exist in association with the front, seas up to 9 ft are present from NW swell. Elsewhere a 1022 mb high is located at 28N39W and E-W ridging predominates across the rest of the subtropical North Atlantic. The weakening stationary front stretching across the forecast waters will dissipate tonight. High pressure will shift slowly eastward across the area through Thu night. Winds and seas will increase over much of the NW waters Thu night into Fri ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida peninsula Fri night. Gale conditions are possible ahead of the front over northern forecast waters Fri afternoon through Sat. Numerous showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany this front forecast to reach from 31N75W to central Cuba by Sat morning, and from 31N72W to eastern Cuba by Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea