000 AXNT20 KNHC 161804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is along the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 05N-02N between 09W-14W. Along the ITCZ, scattered moderate convection is seen to the south from 01S-05S between 25W-35W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are present along the vicinity of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high to the north continues to keep control over most the basin. A trough is observed over the Bay of Campeche from 20N92W to 18N93W. No significant convection is noted across the basin. 10-20kt anticyclonic surface winds cover the Gulf. Mid- level anticyclonic flow and strong subsidence are creating fairly dry air over most of the Gulf. .High pressure in the northern Gulf will shift slowly eastward through Thu ahead of a cold front that will move into the NW Gulf Thu morning. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche Thu night, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri, then move SE of the area Fri night. Strong to near gale force winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind the front. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, are likely to accompany the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds are over the NW Caribbean S of the front. A surface trough is noted west of Jamaica near 19N77W to 15N78W. Isolated trade wind showers are present across the Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is seen over Colombia, but most of this activity is remaining inland. High pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Highest winds will be near the coast of Colombia at night, with building seas of 9 to 10 ft. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move into the NW Caribbean Fri night, then weaken and become stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N64W to the Bahamas near 24N76W and continues as a stationary front to the western coast of Cuba near 22N79W. Scattered showers are possible along the front. A 1025 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N45W and remains in control across the basin. A cold front extends from 31N64W to the central Bahamas where it becomes stationary to western Cuba. The front will reach from 29N65W to the central Bahamas later today, then become stationary from 29N65W to the NW Bahamas by Wed while weakening. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift slowly eastward across the area Wed through Thu night. Winds and seas will increase over much of the NW waters Fri ahead of a cold front that is expected to move off the Florida peninsula Fri night. Gale conditions are possible ahead of the front over northern forecast waters Fri afternoon through Sat. Numerous showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany this front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres