000 AXNT20 KNHC 161036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 636 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1010 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 06S-04N between 12W-35W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is just off the coast of Africa from 03N-06N between 08W-12W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen from 06S-04N between 35W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near 30N89W. 10-20 kt anticyclonic surface winds cover the Gulf. Mid- level anticyclonic flow and strong subsidence are creating fairly dry air over most of the Gulf. High pressure in the northern Gulf will shift slowly E through Thu ahead of a cold front that will move into the NW Gulf Thu morning. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche Thu night, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri, then move SE of the area Fri night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind the front. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in lines, some with strong gusty winds, are likely to accompany the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds are over the NW Caribbean S of the front. Typical isolated trade wind showers are present across the Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is seen over northern Colombia, but most of this activity is remaining inland. High pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Highest winds will be near the coast of Colombia at night, with building seas of 9 to 10 ft. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move into the NW Caribbean Fri night, then weaken and become stationary from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 32N68W to the Bahamas near 25N76W and continues as a stationary front to the north-central coast of Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered showers are seen within 60 nm of the front. A 1025 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 30N47W. Over the E Atlantic, large NW swell is expected from 17N-31N between 15W-40W today and Wednesday. Over the W Atlantic, the weakening cold front will reach from 29N65W to the southern Bahamas later today, then become stationary Wed. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift slowly eastward across the area Wed through Thu night. Winds and seas will increase over much of the NW waters Fri ahead of a cold front that is expected to move off the Florida peninsula Fri night. Gale conditions are possible ahead of the front over northern forecast waters Fri afternoon through Sat. Numerous showers and scattered strong thunderstorms will accompany this front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen