000 AXNT20 KNHC 160522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 05S-04N between 11W-35W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the coast of Africa from 04N-06N between 06W-11W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends from west-central Cuba to Cancun Mexico to the central Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1021 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near 28N89W. 10-20 kt anticyclonic surface winds cover the Gulf. Mid-level anticyclonic flow and strong subsidence are creating fairly dry air over most of the Gulf. High pressure over the Gulf will shift E Wed through Thu night in response to another cold front that will move over the NW Gulf early on Thu, reaching from SE Louisiana to 25N91W to the central Bay of Campeche Thu night, from the Florida Big Bend to near 25N86W to the Yucatan Peninsula early on Fri, and to east of the area Fri night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind the front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in lines, some with strong gusty winds, are likely to precede and accompany the front. High pressure will become centered over the NW Gulf on Sat, with a ridge extending southeastward to the SE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from west-central Cuba near 23N81W to the Yucatan Channel near 21N86W to central Yucatan Peninsula near 19N90W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the front. 10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds are over the NW Caribbean S of the front. Isolated moderate convection is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, typical isolated trade wind showers are present. Expect the front to weaken and dissipate today. High pressure located northeast of the area will support fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night. The high pressure will be replaced by stronger high pressure Thu through Sat allowing for these trades to expand northward some in coverage. Trades will pulse to near gale force along and near the coast of Colombia early this morning and again tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 32N71W to Andros Island Bahamas near 24N78W to the N coast of Cuba near 23N80W, and continues WSW as a stationary front. Scattered showers are seen within 60 nm of the front. A 1027 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 30N49W. A dissipating cold front over the E Atlantic extends from 30N09W to 25N20W to 22N30W to 22N40W. Isolated showers are possible near the dissipating front. Over the W Atlantic, the front will weaken as it reaches from near 28N65W to 26N71W to central Cuba early this evening, then become dissipating stationary from near 27N65W to 26N74W and to near 23N78W by Wed afternoon. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift slowly eastward across the area Wed through Sat in response to a strong cold front that will be moving across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to move off the SE United States coast Fri night from 31N79W to near Melbourne, Florida. The front will reach from 31N76W to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba early on Sat, then begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N74W to 26N75W and to central Cuba by late on Sat. Southerly winds and seas will begin to increase over much of the northwest waters beginning on Thu night and across the central waters Fri through Sat night in response to the approaching cold front, with gale conditions possible over portions of the far northern waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen