000 AXNT20 KNHC 151753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W to 02N12W. The ITCZ continues from 02N12W to 01S29W to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is 180 nm southeast of the monsoon trough. Scattered showers extend out 180 to 200 nm north and south of the ITCZ near the coast of Brazil west of 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the Florida Peninsula and enters the waters from 25N81W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N86W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving along and ahead of the front, extending 80 nm east of the frontal boundary. Otherwise, high pressure remains dominant over the western Gulf with a 1018 mb high anchored near 27N94W. Gentle southerly winds remain ahead of the front, with northerly winds between gentle and moderate, with fresh winds near the western Florida Panhandle. Gentle winds are in the western Gulf near the high. Dense smoke is over the Yucatan Peninsula and the far east Bay of Campeche. Medium to light smoke is over the remainder of the Gulf west of 85W. A cold front extending from south Florida to near Cancun, Mexico will weaken as it exits the SE Gulf this afternoon. High pressure building across the area in the wake of the front will shift eastward Wed through Thu in response to another cold front that will move over the NW Gulf early on Thu, reaching from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche Thu night and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Fri. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Showers are moving northward from Honduras and Nicaragua. In addition to showers moving off of the Yucatan and Belize into the basin. Otherwise, low-topped showers are seen moving across the Greater Antilles, particularly in east-central Cuba and over Hispaniola. Low-topped showers are also moving across the Lesser Antilles. The trades in the eastern half of the Caribbean are moderate to fresh with strong winds north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are also seen in the western Caribbean. High pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Highest winds will be near the coast of Colombia at night with building seas to 9 or 10 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N75W to the coast of Florida near 26N80W. Scattered showers are present 60 nm southeast of the front and north of 27N to 31N. There is also some showers moving off the south Florida coast into the Atlantic nearing the northern Bahamas. Farther east, another cold front enters the waters near 30N11W and stretches southwest to near 23N30W to 22N39W. Behind the front, moderate to fresh northeast winds can be seen with a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 30N45W. Otherwise the rest of the basin has easterly gentle to moderate winds. A cold front extends from 31N69W to south Florida. Fresh to strong winds are noted ahead and behind the front. It is forecast to reach from near 31N69W to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida tonight, and from 29N65W to the Central Bahamas on Tue. Then, the front is forecast to weaken and become stationary from 27N65W to the NW Bahamas on Wed. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift slowly eastward across the area Wed through Fri. Winds and seas will increase over much of the NW waters Fri ahead of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions are possible ahead of the front by Fri night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres