000 AXNT20 KNHC 150548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 03S29W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01N-09S between 31W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front enters the waters near Apalachicola, Florida near 30N85W and stretches to the northern Yucatan near 22N88W. A squall line was within 60 nm of the front but has now weakened, with the thunderstorms mostly over south-central Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are also moving north off the Yucatan and into the southeast Gulf west of 85W. Otherwise, high pressure is dominant over the western Gulf with a 1018 mb high anchored near 24N96W. Gentle southerly winds remain ahead of the front, with northerly winds between gentle and moderate, with fresh winds near the western Florida Panhandle. Gentle winds are in the western Gulf near the high. Dense smoke is over the Yucatan Peninsula and the far east Bay of Campeche. Medium to light smoke is over the remainder of the Gulf west of 83W. The cold front will reach from near Naples, Florida to the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula early on Monday, then begin to weaken as it exits the southeast Gulf waters on Monday afternoon. A squall line just ahead of the front is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, north of 26N. This activity will move across the remainder of the NE Gulf waters during the overnight hours. High pressure building across the area in the wake of the front will shift eastward Wednesday through Thursday in response to another cold front that will be moving across the central U.S. This front is expected to move over the NW Gulf early on Thursday, reach from near southeastern Louisiana to 25N93W and to the central Bay of Campeche Thursday night and from near Fort Myers, Florida to near western Cuba and to the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Showers are moving northward from Honduras and Nicaragua into the western Caribbean in addition to showers moving off of the Yucatan and Belize into the basin. Otherwise, low-topped showers are seen moving across the Greater Antilles, particularly in eastern Cuba and over Hispaniola. Low-topped showers are also moving across the Lesser Antilles. The trades in the eastern half of the Caribbean are moderate to fresh with strong winds north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are also seen north of Honduras, with light to gentle trades in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds in the south- central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will continue through early Thursday then expand north and east in coverage through Friday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Showers and thunderstorms are moving off the northeast Florida coast west of 78W in response to a cold front moving across the southeast U.S. and nearing the Atlantic waters. Another cold front farther east enters the eastern Atlantic near 31N17W and extends southwest to 24N46W. A stationary front continues from 24N46W to 23N54W, with the tail- end of the boundary dissipating to 30N68W. Showers are seen within 50 nm of the front, including the stationary front. Behind the front, moderate to fresh northerly winds can be seen. Otherwise the rest of the basin has easterly gentle to moderate winds. Ridging continues across the area anchored by a 1028 mb high near 33N52W. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast late tonight, preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds. The front will reach from near Bermuda to Straits of Florida Tuesday, then weaken and become stationary from near 27N65W to the northern Bahamas Wednesday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front through early Thursday before shifting eastward through Friday night in response to the next cold front that is expected to move to just offshore the southeastern United States by Friday night. Southerly winds will increase and seas will build over much of the northwest and central waters waters on Friday and Friday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR