777 AXNT20 KNHC 142359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01N-05S between 34W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 14/2100 UTC, a 1019 mb high is over the W Gulf of Mexico near 24N96W. A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N86W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N89W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. A squall line is ahead of the front from 30N83W to 25N86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the NE Gulf and N Florida from 26N-31N between 82W-86W. Similar convection is over the Yucatan Channel and the Yucatan Peninsula from 18N-23N between 86W-89W. 20-25 kt NW winds are W of the cold front. 15-20 kt S winds are E of the front. Dense smoke is over the Yucatan Peninsula and the far E Bay of Campeche. Medium to light smoke is over the remainder of the Gulf W of 85W. The cold front will reach from near Naples, Florida to the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula early Mon, then begin to weaken as it exits the southeast Gulf waters by early Mon evening. The prefrontal squall line will move across the remainder of the NE Gulf waters tonight. High pressure building across the area in the wake of the front will shift eastward Wed through Thu in response to another cold front that will be moving across the central U.S. This front is expected to move over the NW Gulf early on Thu, reach from near southeastern Louisiana to 25N93W and to the central Bay of Campeche Thu night and from near Fort Myers, Florida to near western Cuba and to the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea, with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is over central Cuba, central Honduras, W Panama, and N Colombia. Scattered showers are over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and E Cuba. Elsewhere, dense smoke is over the Gulf of Honduras, and the NW Caribbean N of 15N and W of 83W. Fresh to strong southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will continue through early Thu, then expand north and east in coverage through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the E Atlantic near 31N20W and extends SW to 25N30W to 24N46W. A stationary front continues to 23N63W to 30N69W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic, N of the front, near 33N53W. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight, preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds. The front will reach from near Bermuda to Straits of Florida Tue, then weaken and become stationary from near 27N65W to the northern Bahamas Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front through early Thu before shifting eastward through Fri night in response to the next cold front that is expected to move to just offshore the southeastern United States Fri night. Southerly winds will increase and seas will build over much of the northwest and central waters waters on Fri and Fri night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa