000 AXNT20 KNHC 140004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front has enter the western Gulf of Mexico. On 14/1500 UTC the front is forecast to extend from 30N88W to 24N91W to 18.5N95W. NW gale force winds are forecast S of 20N W of front with seas 8 to 10 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 03N-01S between 00W- 06W. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 00N-06S between 30W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 13/2100 UTC, a cold front has entered the western Gulf of Mexico. The front extends from S of Houston Texas near 29N95W to Brownsville Texas near 26N97W. The front is presently void of precipitation. 20-25 NW winds are W of front. A Gale is forecast for Sunday over the SW Gulf. See above. E Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi has the potential for severe weather. The remainder of the Gulf E of front has 10-25 southerly winds with strongest winds in vicinity of the cold front. Smoke is also over the W Gulf, E of front and W of 90W, restricting visibility to 3-5 nm. Elsewhere, a small area of scattered showers are over S Florida W of Lake Okeechobee. The front will rapidly move across the Gulf waters and weaken as it moves to the southeast of the area early on Mon. A brief period of minimal gale conditions is expected off the coast of Veracruz Mexico on Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe with strong gusty winds, will precede the cold front as it moves across the Gulf. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea, with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is over the higher elevations of central Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over Costa Rica, W Panama, and N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the E Caribbean E of 70W, and over Hispaniola. Elsewhere, smoke is over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong southeast winds in the far western Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will continue through Sun and diminish Sun night. Fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will continue through Thu night and expand northward in coverage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A small surface trough is E of the N Bahamas from 29N77W to 26N76W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Another surface trough extends from the S Bahamas near 23N74W to E Cuba near 20N74W. A cold front enters the E Atlantic near 32N30W and extends W to 25N50W to 25N60W. A stationary front continues to 30N68W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. A 1021 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N16W. Over the W Atlantic, the trough extending northward from E Cuba will move northwestward and dissipate tonight. High pressure will remain across the area through Sun night. A cold front will move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. coast Sun night preceded by fresh to strong SW winds. The front will reach from near Bermuda to Straits of Florida Tue, then weaken and become stationary from 27N65W to the northern Bahamas on Wed and dissipate on Thu as high pressure centered north of the area shifts east-southeastward. The high will extend a ridge west- southwestward to northeast Florida by Thu night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa