000 AXNT20 KNHC 131052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 652 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast over the western Gulf of Mexico on 14/1800 UTC from 30N86W to 25N89W to 18.5N93W. North to northwest gale force winds are forecast south of 20N and west of 95W with seas 8 to 10 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from 00N19W to 01S27W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is near the area where the monsoon trough and ITCZ meet from 04N-03S between 11W- 23W. Isolated moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 00N- 09S east of 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... The warm front is lifting away from the coast across the southeast and middle Texas coast. Meanwhile, showers are continuing across the west and central Gulf of Mexico. A trough continues to linger off the eastern Mexican coastline, from 25N97W to 19N95W. Fog is still being reported in the north-central portion of the basin with visibility down to 1.5-2 nm. Smoke also continues to move north into the Bay of Campeche west of 90W. South-southeasterly winds are seen across the basin mostly gentle to moderate with fresh winds in the central Gulf. A strong cold front moving into the northwest Gulf tonight will push across the Gulf waters and reach the southeastern portion of the basin by early Monday. A brief period of minimal gale conditions is possible off the coast of Veracruz Mexico on Sunday--see above for more details. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. High pressure behind the front will shift eastward through Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Clouds with low-topped showers are moving across the eastern and northern Caribbean. Showers are continue to move throughout the Greater Antilles. Showers are also seen moving across the Windward Islands. Trade winds are moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean with gentle trades across the northern and southern basin. Near the Gulf of Honduras, winds are fresh to strong particularly north of Honduras. Fresh to strong southeast winds in the far western Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will continue through Sunday then diminish by Sunday night. Fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will persist through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N37W and stretches to the west near 28N69W. From 28N69W, the tail-end of the boundary stalls to near 31N77W. Showers are moving along and 100 nm ahead of the front east of 48W. A trough extends from 27N68W to northern Haiti near 20N72W. This trough is near the area where the frontal boundary begins to stall and showers are seen in this area. Showers are also seen to the north and west of the Cape Verde Islands. Ahead of the front, winds are out of the south- southwest light to gentle. As the front passes, winds are switching to north between moderate to fresh. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds out of the east-northeast can be seen across the rest of the basin as a surface ridging prevails across the area anchored by a 1029 mb high near 37N63W. The weakening trough extending northeast from Haiti will move northwestward and dissipate by tonight. High pressure will prevail across the area through Sunday night. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida on Sunday night preceded by fresh to strong SW winds. The front will reach from Bermuda to Straits of Florida by early Tuesday, then weaken and become stationary from 27N65W to 27N73W on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday night and Monday with this front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR