000 AXNT20 KNHC 130549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 149 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast over the western Gulf of Mexico on 14/1800 UTC from 30N86W to 25N89W to 18.5N93W. Gale force winds are forecast south of 20N and west of 95W with seas 8 to 10 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 03S28W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 05N-01S between 15W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 02N-08S between 25W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A front is stalled along the middle Texas coast and continues to linger. Showers are seen moving across the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, with isolated to scattered showers moving inland in southeast Texas. A surface trough extends from 27N97W to 21N96W. Fog is being reported in the north central Gulf of Mexico with visibility down to 2-3 nm. Smoke also continues to move north into the Bay of Campeche west of 90W. Winds are generally east- southeast between gentle and moderate, with fresh winds in the central Gulf. The surface trough over the western Gulf will slowly shift westward and weaken through early Saturday. A strong cold front will move over the northwest Gulf on Saturday night. The front will move across the Gulf waters and reach the southeastern Gulf early on Monday. Brief gale conditions will be possible off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico on Sunday--see above for more details. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Wednesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Clouds with low-topped showers are moving across the eastern and northern Caribbean. Showers are also seen across the Greater Antilles. Trade winds are gentle to moderate in the eastern portion of the basin, with light trades in the western Caribbean. Fresh to strong southeast winds are developing in the far western Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. These winds will continue through Sunday before diminishing to fresh speeds by Sunday night. Fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will continue through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N42W and stretches to the west to near 30N72W. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen right along the eastern portion of the front east of 52W. Showers are also along the western half of the boundary, albeit not as organized. A trough extends across the eastern Bahamas from 27N70W to just off the northeast tip of Cuba near 20N74W. This trough is adjacent to the tail-end of the front where showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen between 65W-71W. Ahead of the cold front, showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving east- southeast from 27N-23N between 40W-50W. Ahead of the front, winds are out of the south-southwest light to gentle. As the front passes, winds are switching to north between moderate to fresh. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds out of the east-northeast can be seen across the rest of the basin as a surface ridging prevails across the area anchored by a 1030 mb high near 38N64W. The tail-end of the boundary will weaken to a trough early on Saturday. The trough will move in a general northwestward direction through Saturday and dissipate by late Saturday night. Otherwise, high pressure will remain present across the area through Sunday night. A cold front, preceded by fresh to mostly strong southwest winds, will move over the extreme northwest waters Sun night and across the rest of the northwest part of the area through early Monday evening. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early on Tuesday, and become stationary from near 27N65W to 27N73W and dissipating to southern Florida Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with this front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR