000 AXNT20 KNHC 120509 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 109 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 00N26W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough along the coast of Africa and adjacent waters mainly east 15W. Scattered showers prevail along and south of the ITCZ mainly west of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A pre-frontal trough is along the coast of Texas from near Corpus Christi at 29N96W to NE Mexico at 26N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers along the trough affecting the northwest Gulf waters. A cold front is further inland over S Texas. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail over the basin. Weak surface ridge prevails across the eastern Gulf, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered over the west Atlantic. High pressure will slide eastward through Saturday as a low pressure system and its associated cold front moves across Texas. The low will track northeastward through Sunday, with the cold front moving off the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts by Saturday night, reaching from southeastern Louisiana to near 24N93W and to near Veracruz by early Sunday and from Apalachicola to near 25N88W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Sunday night. Strong southeast winds along with building seas will develop across the Gulf ahead of the front from Friday through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. The front will be followed by strong northerly winds across much of the Gulf, with minimal gale force winds possible in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz on Sunday. Winds will begin to diminish over the NW Gulf Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery shows dry air over the NW Caribbean mainly west of 79W. Scattered showers are observed near Jamaica and eastern Cuba north of 17N between 74W-79W. Scattered showers are noted over the Greater Antilles, transported with the moderate to fresh trades across the region. Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop over the far western Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras on Friday and continue into Saturday afternoon, then be mainly confined to the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday night. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will develop over the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through the weekend, while expanding northward in coverage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N56W to 29N68W, then becomes stationary to 31N76W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N65W to 23N70W to Hispaniola near 20N71W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm on either sides of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N36W. The cold front over the western Atlantic will move southeastward tonight, then become stationary as strong high pressure builds southward over the northeast waters. The stationary front will weaken to a trough on Friday and move northwestward to north of 31N Saturday night while weakening, while the high pressure shifts east-southeastward and weakens. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the W Atlantic through Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will move across the northwest and central sections Monday and over the northeast waters by Tuesday. It will be preceded by fresh to strong south to southwest winds over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA