000 AXNT20 KNHC 112355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 755 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning... Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through this evening, with near gales persisting through Friday, according to the Meteo-France forecast. For more details, refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 00N26W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 03N-08N between 02W-13W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm S of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A prefrontal trough is along the coast of Texas from near Corpus Christi at 29N96W to Brownsville at 26N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over Corpus Christi Texas. A weak cold front is further inland over S Texas. 10-25 southerly winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds over the W Gulf W of 90W, and weakest winds along the Florida coast. Smoke is noted over the W Gulf W of 92W. Veracruz Mexico is reporting 5 mile visibility. The E Gulf has mostly fair weather. In the upper levels, strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Relatively weak high pressure over the eastern and central Gulf waters will continue to slide eastward through Sat as a rather deep low pressure system and its associated cold front moves across Texas. The low will track northeastward through Sun, with the cold front moving off the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts Sat night, reach from southeastern Louisiana to near 24N93W and to near Veracruz early Sun and from Apalachicola to near 25N88W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun night. Strong southeast winds along with building seas will develop across the Gulf ahead of the front Fri through Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. The front will be followed by strong northerly winds across much of the Gulf, with minimal gale force winds possible in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz on Sun. Winds will begin to diminish over the NW Gulf Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from a 1011 mb low in the NW Bahamas to west-central Cuba to a 1009 mb surface low near 18N83W to 16N84W. This trough over the W Caribbean extends up to the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Satellite imagery shows dry air over the NW Caribbean north of 15N and west of 79W. Scattered showers are observed near Jamaica and eastern Cuba north of 17N between 74W-79W. Isolated showers are over the NE Caribbean, including the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh winds cover the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle winds are over the western Caribbean. The W Atlantic surface trough will dissipate by early Mon. Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop over the far western Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras on Fri and continue into Sat afternoon, then be mainly confined to the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will develop over the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia Fri through Sun night, while expanding northward in coverage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect offshore of Morocco in the far eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends from 32N60W to 30N70W, continuing as a stationary front to 32N79W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 29N65W to 25N70W to Hispaniola near 20N71W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A large 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N34W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N between 70W-80W. The cold front over the western Atlantic will move southeastward to along a position from 28N65W to 27N74W tonight and become stationary as strong high pressure builds southward over the northeast and north-central waters. The stationary front will weaken to a trough Fri and move northwestward to north of 31N Sat night while weakening, while the high pressure shifts east- southeastward and weakens. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the far northern waters E of 75W will spread southward to near 27N on Fri, then become mainly fresh east to southeast winds on Sat and southeast to south moderate to fresh winds on Sun as a cold front approaches the far northwest waters. This front will move across the northwest and central sections Mon and Mon night and over the northeast waters Tue and Tue night. It will be preceded by fresh to strong south to southwest winds over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa