000 AXNT20 KNHC 111035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 635 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning... Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through Thursday, according to the Meteo-France forecast. For more details, refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either sides of the boundaries mainly west of 10W. GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary extends across the Florida Peninsula. It was analyzed as a stationary front from 30N81W to 31N86W, then continues over southern Alabama. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1011 mb high centered near 29N86W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds across the western half of the basin, while light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail over the eastern half. Expect fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf to continue during the day ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast of Texas later today. The front is expected to lift back during the evening hours. Fresh to strong SE winds will resume over the western basin on Friday night ahead of another front expected to move off the Texas coast late Saturday. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front early on Sunday, reaching near gale force off Veracruz Sunday afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Monday morning as the front weakens from the Florida Keys to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 mb surface low is centered near 19N83W. A surface trough extends from the low to 22N80W then continues across the west Atlantic. Scattered showers prevail along and within 75 nm east of the trough affecting eastern Cuba. To the east, low-topped showers are quickly moving across the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate trades are noted across the eastern half of the basin, with locally fresh winds prevail within 90 nm north of the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle variable winds prevail over the western half of the basin. The trough/low will continue to weaken and dissipate by this evening. A weak ridge to the north will promote moderate to fresh tradewinds across the Caribbean into Friday. The ridge will strengthen afterwards, thus resulting in fresh to near gale force winds along the coast of Colombia through Monday night. The overall increase in pressure gradient will also result in fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras through Sunday evening, increasing to near-gale force at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the far east Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from the northern Florida coast near 32N69W to 30N77W, then becomes stationary from that point to 30N81W. Scattered showers prevail along and south of the cold front mainly between 65W-72W. A 1008 mb surface low is located near 26N78W, with surface trough extending from 29N76W to the low to 23N79W. Scattered showers prevail within 150 nm east of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 27N36W. The cold front will extend from 31N63W to 24N69W this evening. A ridge building N of the area will tighten the pressure gradient NW of the front, thus resulting in fresh to strong winds and building seas over the north-central and NE waters by tonight, continuing through Friday as the front moves E of the area. The surface trough will drift WNW Friday evening through Saturday morning supporting the continuation of fresh to strong winds over the west-central Atlantic waters. S winds will increase off northeast Florida late Sunday ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast early Monday, reaching from 31N69W to the northern Bahamas by Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA