000 AXNT20 KNHC 110530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning... Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through Thursday, according to the Meteo-France forecast. For more details, refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either sides of the boundaries mainly west of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary extends across the Florida Peninsula. It was analyzed as a cold front from 30N81W to 31N86W, then becomes stationary over southern Alabama. Surface ridging is building across the basin, anchored by a 1010 mb high centered near 23N91W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds across the western half of the basin, while light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail over the eastern half. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf to continue through Thursday between the high pressure and a trough over the southern Plains. These winds will diminish through Friday as the high pressure shifts east, but increase again Saturday ahead of the next front that is expected to move off the Texas coast late Saturday into early Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front Sunday, reaching near gale-force off Veracruz by late Sunday. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf on Monday as the front stalls and weakens from the Florida Keys to the northwest Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 mb surface low is centered near 18N84W. A surface trough extends from the low to 22N78W then continues across the west Atlantic. Scattered showers prevail along and within 75 nm on either sides of the trough. To the east, low-topped showers are quickly moving across the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate trades are noted across the eastern half of the basin, with locally fresh winds prevailing within 90 nm north of the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle variable winds prevail over the western half of the basin. The weak ridge to the north of the basin will continue to promote moderate to fresh breeze tradewinds across the Caribbean through Friday. As the ridge strengthens and increases the pressure gradient, winds will increase in speed especially north of Colombia and north of Honduras through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the far east Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from the northern Florida coast near 30N81W to 32N74W with scattered showers. A 1008 mb surface low is located near 27N79W, with surface trough extending across central Florida. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N72W to 22N78W. Scattered to numerous showers prevail along and within 75 nm on either sides of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 27N36W. The cold front over the west Atlantic will shift southeastward through Thursday and extend along 27N by early Friday followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Winds and seas will diminish by late Friday as the front shifts east. On Friday, the trough north of Hispaniola will dissipate through late Saturday as it drifts northwestward off the Bahamas. Wind speeds will increase off the northeast Florida coast by late Sunday ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the coast early Monday and reach from roughly 31N70W to southeast Florida by Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA