000 AXNT20 KNHC 101702 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning... Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through Thursday, according to the Meteo-France forecast. For more details, refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-08S between 10W-30W along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A slow moving frontal boundary extends off the southwest coast of Florida near 27N82W to the Caribbean. Some showers associated with the front and digging mid-level trough are moving across the eastern Gulf onto the western coast of Florida. Otherwise, benign conditions prevail across the rest of the basin as a 1014 mb high is centered right off the northwest Yucatan near 27N57W. Winds are generally light to gentle out of the north-northwest. The frontal boundary will drift southward and dissipate over the next day. In response to a strong low pressure system over the U.S. Plains, southerly return flow will be enhanced in the western Gulf through Thursday. A ridge of high pressure north of the Gulf will subsequently promote quiescent conditions through Saturday morning. By late Saturday, southeasterly return flow will be enhanced ahead of the next cold front, which should emerge off of the Texas coast on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A slow moving boundary extending across the southeast Gulf of Mexico stretches across the northwest Caribbean to just off the coast of Belize. Ahead of the front, numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen moving across Cuba and the west- central Caribbean and beginning to approach Jamaica. A pre-frontal trough is also seen ahead of the front from 27N53W to 24N54W. To the east, low-topped showers are quickly moving across the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate trades are seen across most of the Caribbean, with light trades in the southwest portion of the basin. Ahead of the incoming front, winds are gentle out the south-southeast. Behind the front, winds are mostly gentle out of the northwest. The front will drift eastward today before dissipating tonight. A weak ridge to the north will promote only moderate to fresh breeze tradewinds across the Caribbean through Friday. As the ridge strengthens and increases the pressure gradient, winds, particularly north of Colombia and north of Honduras, will be enhanced on Saturday and Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the far east Atlantic waters. A cold front continues to push east off the Florida coast. A 1008 mb low located near 31N53W has a cold front extending southwest to near Daytona Beach, Florida where the boundary begins to stall. Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms are moving north off of Cuba into the Bahamas ahead of the front. Showers are also seen west of 40W. Surface riding prevails across the remainder of the basin with a 1026 mb high located near 30N27W. The boundary pushing off the northeast coast of Florida is expected to dissipate by Thursday. Another cold front will reach the area tonight, pushing eastward and extending from 28N65W to 27N75W on Friday morning. Strong NE winds will develop north of the front Thursday and Friday before weakening Sat and Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR