000 AXNT20 KNHC 092359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning... Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the coast of Morocco in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya on Wednesday, according to the Meteo-France forecast. Winds will begin increasing today, reaching near gale by this evening. For more details, refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 04N08W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02S20W to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered showers extend 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ. A cluster of scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen to the south of the monsoon trough near 03S-01S between 09W-13W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends off the Florida Peninsula from Saint Petersburg near 27N82W to 25N85W. A stationary front continues from 25N85W southwest to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is mostly seen 180 nm southeast ahead of the front. From the Florida Peninsula out to 90W across the Gulf is under overcast skies.Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough extends from the Florida Keys southwest to the west coast of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of the trough across the Florida Straits into western Cuba. South- southeasterly winds are generally gentle to moderate east of the front, with moderate to fresh winds in the north- central Gulf west of the front. The western portion of the basin has variable light to gentle winds. A cold front from the Florida Panhandle to the western Yucatan peninsula will extend from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel by early Wed. High pres will build in the wake of the front with southerly return flow in the western Gulf increasing through early Thu. The next cold front will move into the Texas coastal waters early Thu, stalling and pushing back inland through the day Thu as the high restrengthens. Another cold front will move into the western Gulf late Sat night into early Sun, shifting across the basin through the end of the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is moving across the northern and western portion of the basin. A pre-frontal trough is extending from the Florida Keys to western Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms are observed ahead of the cold front from the Florida Keys to northwest Caribbean 100 nm east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Further east, low-topped showers are moving across the Greater Antilles in addition to the northern portion of the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers are stretching across the southern Caribbean to the southern half of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds are observed in the eastern half of the Caribbean with light to gentle trades across the rest of the basin. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the S central Caribbean Sea through tonight. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean Sea tonight, and extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Wednesday morning, before dissipating. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the south central Caribbean Sea on Fri evening, as a ridge builds in the NW Atlantic Ocean. The slight increase in the pres gradient will also support fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night, continuing through the remainder of the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging prevails across the area anchored by a 1022 mb high is centered near 27N32W. High pres ridging will weaken tonight as a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico approaches. The front will move off the NE Florida coast by early Wed, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida early Thu. The front will stall and weaken through the day Thu while a reinforcing front or trough drops S of 31N. The reinforcing boundary will stall along 28N/29N through the end of the week, dissipating by early Sat. High pres will rebuild across the basin through Sat night, weakening by late Sun as the next cold front approaches from the NW. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MMTorres