000 AXNT20 KNHC 091717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 PM EDT Tue Apr 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1706 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning... Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the coast of Morocco in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya on Wednesday, according to the Meteo-France forecast. Winds will begin increasing today, reaching near gale by this evening. For more details, refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 05N08W to 01S21W. The ITCZ continues from 01S21W to the coast of Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection is along and in the vicinity of both boundaries mainly south of 02N. The strongest activity is noted east of 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends off the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to the northwest Yucatan near 21N90W. Scattered moderate convection is mostly seen along the southern half of the boundary. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is moving across the southern Gulf and entering South Florida. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are also seen across the southwestern Gulf northward into the northeast Gulf near the cold front. South- southeasterly winds are generally gentle to moderate east of the front, with moderate to fresh winds in the north- central Gulf west of the front. The western portion of the basin has variable light to gentle winds. The cold front is forecast to exit from the southeast Gulf of Mexico by tonight. High pressure will build across the western half of the basin early on Wednesday, and shift to the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Thursday before dissipating. A second cold front is forecast to approach the coast of Texas on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Fresh to strong return flow will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday night until Thursday morning. This front is expected to lift northward across Texas on Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are moving across the northern and western portion of the basin. A 1010 mb low is located in the Gulf of Honduras with a pre-frontal trough extending into the southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the incoming cold front. Low-topped showers are moving across the Greater Antilles in addition to the northern portion of the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers are stretching across the southern Caribbean to the southern half of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds are observed in the eastern half of the Caribbean with light to gentle trades across the rest of the basin. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea through tonight. A cold front will reach the northwest Caribbean Sea tonight, and extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Wednesday morning before dissipating. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the south central Caribbean Sea on Friday evening as a ridge builds in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. The slight increase in the pressure gradient will support fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras and will continue through the remainder of the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging prevails across the area anchored by a 1023 mb high is centered near 28N32W. The surface ridge will shift east ahead of an incoming mid-level digging trough moving eastward across the Southeast U.S. The cold front associated with this the digging trough will reach the northwest forecast waters on Wednesday morning. The cold front will extend from 31N75W to the Florida Straits on Wednesday morning, from 31N69W to 28N76W to the Florida Straits on Wednesday night, from 31N66W to 27N70W to 27N75W to Cuba near 22N78W on Thursday morning, and through 29N65W to 24N68W to Hispaniola near 20N70W on Thursday night. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected in the northern waters ahead of the front. The front is expected to bring scattered to numerous heavy rainshowers on Friday morning. High pressure will build across the area following the frontal boundary by Thursday night and will prevail through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR