000 AXNT20 KNHC 090503 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning... Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the coast of Morocco in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya on Wednesday, according to the Meteo France forecast. Winds will begin increasing on Tuesday, reaching near gale by that evening. For more details, refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from 00N22W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Numerous moderate convection is along and in the vicinity of both boundaries mainly south of 02N. The strongest activity is noted east of 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 30N89W to 26N90W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and east of the front mainly north of 25N. High pressure is building behind the front, centered near 26N96W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong westerly winds north of 27N, while variable moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf in advance of the cold front. Thunderstorms will also continue along with the cold front in the south-central Gulf through Tuesday. The cold front will reach from the W coast of Florida near 29N83W to the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday afternoon. The front will then move across the SE Gulf through late Tuesday, exiting the area by Tuesday night. High pressure over the northwest Gulf will shift to the eastern Gulf by Thu as the next cold front approaches the Texas coast. Fresh to strong return flow will develop over the western Gulf Wednesday night and Thursday. This front is expected to become stationary near the Texas coast Thu through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough of low pressure over Central America is producing scattered moderate convection over Guatemala, Belize, the southern Yucatan Peninsula and the western Gulf of Honduras west of 86W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are seen near and over portions of the Greater Antilles. Recent TPW imagery indicates an increase in moisture over the western Caribbean. Expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to increase in this area by late Tuesday as the remnants of the cold front enters the northwest Caribbean. Fresh trades are currently observed over much of the Caribbean, with strong to near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. High pressure N of the region will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean tonight through Tue night. Afterward, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through Friday night. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then winds will increase again to a fresh to strong breeze Thursday night through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A squall line is moving eastward off the coast of northeast Florida along 81W. These feature is weakening quickly as it moves over water. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the area anchored by 3 surface highs. A 1021 mb high is centered near 28N72W, the next one is a 1023 mb high centered near 27N45W. The third one is a 1023 mb high centered near 29N24W. A pair weak troughs are producing isolated showers over the central Atlantic north of 20N between 30W-40W and 45W-50W. Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning over the far E Atlantic off the coast of Morocco. The ridge will shift E ahead of low pressure tracking eastward from Louisiana to the SE U.S. by Tuesday night. Its associated cold front will reach the NW part of the forecast waters by early Wednesday. The cold front will extend from 31N77W to SE Florida by Wednesday morning, from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas by Wednesday night, and from 31N66W to the NW Bahamas on Thursday. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected over the north waters ahead of the front, reaching near gale force winds N of 30N on Wednesday. The front will be preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build across the northern waters in the wake of the front by the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA