000 AXNT20 KNHC 082350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 750 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the coast of Morocco in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya on Wednesday, according to the Meteo France forecast. Winds will begin increasing Tuesday, reaching near gale by late Tuesday. Seas will become rough by late Tuesday. For more details, refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 . ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N16W to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from 00N22W to 01S26W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Numerous strong convection is from 01N-04N between 10W-13W. Elsewhere from 03S-05N between 06W-22W, scattered moderate convection is noted. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring within 240 nm N and within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 22W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near Waveland Mississippi to near Buras Louisiana to 26N90W to 22N93W to 18N94W. A squall line has exited the NE Gulf and is moving E over northern Florida from just W of Jacksonville to just NE of Tampa as of 2100 UTC. However, additional lines and clusters of thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf of Mexico approaching Florida. Upper-level divergence is enhancing thunderstorm activity over the central and NE Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is occurring generally within 120 nm of a line from 22N94W to 26N90W to 31N83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen over eastern Mexico between Veracruz and S Texas east of 100W. Some of this activity is spilling into the SW Gulf south of 21N and west of 94.5W. Winds over the NE Gulf in advance of the front are moderate, but fresh to strong near thunderstorms with isolated gusts to gale force possible in the strongest storms. Fresh to strong west-northwest winds are observed within 180 nm west of the front in the northern Gulf. Although the squall line has exited the NE Gulf, scattered thunderstorms, some strong, will continue over the NE Gulf in advance of the cold front. Thunderstorms will also continue along with the cold front in the south-central Gulf through Tuesday. The cold front will reach from the W coast of Florida near 29N83W to the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue afternoon. Then, the front will move across the SE Gulf through late Tue, exiting the area by Tue night. High pres over the NW Gulf Tue will shift to the eastern Gulf by Thu as a weak cold front approaches the Texas coast. Fresh to strong return flow will develop over the western Gulf Wed night and Thu. This front is expected to become stationary near the Texas coast Thu through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough of low pressure over Central America is producing scattered moderate convection over Guatemala, Belize, the southern Yucatan Peninsula and the western Gulf of Honduras west of 87.5W. Elsewhere, isolated showers are seen near and over portions of the Greater Antilles from Puerto Rico to Cuba. Isolated showers are seen north of 18N over the waters of the north-central and northwest Caribbean. Recent TPW imagery indicates increasing moisture over the western Caribbean. Expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to increase in the NW Caribbean by late Tuesday as the remnant of the Gulf of Mexico cold front enters the area. Fresh trades are currently observed over much of the Caribbean, with strong to near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. High pressure N of the region will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean tonight through Tue night. Afterward, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then winds will increase again to a fresh to strong breeze Thu night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A N-S oriented squall line is moving eastward off the coast from the Georgia/South Carolina line to Daytona Beach along 81W. Strong thunderstorms with gale force gusts accompany the squall line. Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusts to gale force will be possible this evening in the waters north of 27N and west of 79W. A 1022 mb high is located near 29N73W. A few weak troughs and a weak 1021 mb low are producing isolated showers over the central Atlantic from 20N-32N between 31W-49W. A 1024 mb high is near 28N24W. See section above for details on a gale warning in the far E Atlantic off the coast of Morocco. A ridge over the western Atlantic extending SE from the high near 29N73W will shift E ahead of low pres tracking eastward from Louisiana to the SE U.S. by Tue night. The associated cold front will reach the NW part of the forecast waters early Wed. The cold front will extend from 31N77W to SE Florida by Wed morning, from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas by Wed night, and from 31N66W to the NW Bahamas on Thu. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected over the north waters ahead of the front, reaching near gale force winds N of 30N on Wed. The front will be preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms, which have already begun moving offshore of Georgia and northern Florida. High pressure will build across the northern waters in the wake of the front Thu through Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen