000 AXNT20 KNHC 080903 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 503 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N15W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-10N between 00W- 04W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 01N-08N between 08W-15W, and from 03N-06S between 15W-24W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low is centered over E Texas near 31N95W. A cold front extends S from the low to Houston Texas near 29N95W to NE of Tampico Mexico near 23N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 25N-31N between 90W-94W. Radar imagery shows a squall line from Alabama near 33N88W to the Gulf near 28N88W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 29N between 85W-89W. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 24N92W to 18N93W. A small area of scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-20N between 92W-97W. 10-25 kt SE surface winds are E of the surface trough and squall line. Weakest winds are over the NE Gulf, while strongest winds are over the Straits of Florida, and along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The cold front will reach from southwestern Louisiana to 25N95W to near Veracruz later this morning, from near southeastern Louisiana to 25N90W to just inland of Mexico near 18N94W early this evening, and move across the eastern Gulf through Tue night. The front will weaken to a trough as it moves across the remainder of the eastern Gulf early on Wed, and is expected to exit the area Wed afternoon. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift to the eastern Gulf by Thu as a weak cold front approaches the Texas coast. Fresh to strong return flow will develop over the western Gulf Wed night through most of Thu. This front is expected to become stationary along or just offshore the Texas coast Thu through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and central Cuba. Similar scattered showers are over the SW Caribbean along the coasts of S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and W Panama. Upper level ridging is over the entire Caribbean Sea with strong subsidence. High pressure to the north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue, reaching near gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight and Mon night. This pattern will also support pulsing fresh to strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon night. Residual long period NE swell will affect the waters E of the Windward Islands until tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1018 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N70W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N47W. Another 1024 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 28N24W. A ridge will dominate the W Atlantic through Tue. A surface low will track northeastward from the southern U.S. late on Tue with an associated cold front entering the northwest part of the forecast region by Wed morning. The cold front will reach from near 31N70W to Lake Okeechobee Florida by Wed night, then begin to lift northward while weakening. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are expected over the north waters ahead of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa