000 AXNT20 KNHC 072353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 753 PM EDT Sun Apr 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The squall line over the NW Gulf of Mexico is now being analyzed as a pre-frontal trough stretching from central Louisiana to 29N93W to 26N95W as of 2100 UTC. Radar and satellite imagery indicate that a large area of associated numerous moderate convection is north of 25N mainly between 90W-95W. The pre-frontal trough will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly severe, as it moves from W to E across the northern and central Gulf waters through Monday, and the NE Gulf late Monday into Tuesday. Expect wind gusts to gale force and locally higher seas near the heavier thunderstorms along with frequent lightning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W to 00N15W to 01S21W. The ITCZ continues from 01S21W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is mainly inland over the western Ivory Coast, Liberia, eastern Sierra Leone and southeastern Guinea. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends offshore from 03N-06N east of 16W. Elsewhere, numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen from 05S-01S between 16W-23W. Isolated showers are within 300 nm of the coast of South America from 05S-03N. GULF OF MEXICO... A pre-frontal trough currently in the northern Gulf and its associated convection is described in the section above. A strong mid-upper level low pressure system over Texas is supporting the convection over the N Gulf. A surface low is starting to form now over SE Texas with a developing cold front extending SW from the low toward east-central Texas. The low will move E across the southern U.S. while it drags the cold front through the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight. The front will reach from Mobile to 25N92W to the central Bay of Campeche Mon evening, then from the Florida Big Bend to near 25N88W to the western Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue afternoon. The front will weaken to a trough as it exits the SE Gulf on Wed. High pressure following the front will shift E over the eastern Gulf by Thu as a weak cold front approaches the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Other than a few isolated trade wind showers, mostly quiet weather covers the Caribbean Sea. Mid to upper-level ridging covers much of the Caribbean. Isolated thunderstorms over Jamaica and Cuba are left over from afternoon heating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen over western Panama and southern Costa Rica. Fresh trades cover the eastern and central Caribbean with moderate winds elsewhere. High pressure to the north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue, reaching near gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight and Mon night. This pattern will also support pulsing fresh to strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 25N70W to 30N60W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm to the east of this feature. Otherwise, isolated showers are over Florida and over water between Andros Island and Miami. Farther east, a frontal boundary to the north of the waters along with a weak mid-level disturbance sliding to the east is inducing showers from 26N-31N between 33W-40W. A 1023 mb high is centered near 28N27W which is ridging across the central and eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. High pressure over the area will change little through Tue night. Low pressure will track northeastward from the southern U.S. late on Tue with an associated cold front that will move across the northwest part of the area on Wed morning. The cold front will reach from near 31N77W to Vero Beach early Wed, weaken into a trough and stretch from near 31N73W to 28N77W to the NW Bahamas and Miami by Wed evening. The trough will be weakening and become nearly stationary from near 30N66W to 27N72W to NW of the Bahamas Thu. High pres will build SE across the NE part of the forecast waters late Wed through Thu night as another weak trough moves from E to W across the waters between the SE Bahamas and Hispaniola. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen