000 AXNT20 KNHC 070934 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 534 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from N Liberia near 06N10W to 01N20W to 00N23W. The ITCZ continues from 00N23W to 00N30W to Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-03S between 14W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-04S between 36W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NW Gulf of Mexico. 10-25 kt SE return flow is over the entire Gulf with lightest winds over the NE Gulf, and strongest winds along the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows low stratus or fog along coastal areas from Tampico Mexico to St. Marks Florida. More fog is over the NW Gulf N of 26N and W of 90W. Broken upper level clouds are over the W Gulf W of 93W. High pressure ridging and moderate to fresh return flow will prevail across the basin through this evening, except in the sections of the southcentral and southwest Gulf, where strong east to southeast winds will continue through early Mon. A weak cold front will move across the NW Gulf tonight preceded by a trough in the early evening. The front is expected to reach from Mobile to 25N92W to the central Bay of Campeche Mon evening, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to 25N88W to the western Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue afternoon. The front will weaken to a trough as it exits the southeastern Gulf on Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly severe, will move from W to E ahead of the front across the northern and central Gulf waters through Mon. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift east to the eastern Gulf by Thu as another cold front approaches the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Similar scattered showers are over the SW Caribbean along the coasts of S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and W Panama. Upper level ridging is over the entire Caribbean Sea with strong subsidence. High pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue, reaching near gale force off Colombia tonight and Mon night. This pattern will also support pulsing fresh to strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through early Mon night. Decaying long-period northeast propagate through the waters east of the Windward Islands will last through early this afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to 29N73W to beyond 31N77W. Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 30N-32N between 78W-80W. A 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 37N45W. High pressure ridging dominates the central and eastern Atlantic. The W Atlantic front will fully dissipate by this morning. High pressure will then follow across the W Atlantic through Tue night. A surface low and associated cold front will enter the NW waters on Wed morning. The cold front will reach from 31N77W to Vero Beach early Wed, and extend from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and Miami by Wed evening. The front will transition to a trough from 30N66W to the NW Bahamas Thu. High pressure will build southeastward across the W Atlantic Thu night. A weak trough will move W between the SE Bahamas and Hispaniola. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa