000 AXNT20 KNHC 070513 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 113 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from N Liberia near 06N10W to 03N14W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W, to 01N30W to 01N28W to Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-03S between 11W-27W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-04S between 33W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NW Gulf of Mexico. 10-25 kt SE return flow is over the entire Gulf with lightest winds over the NE Gulf, and strongest winds along the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows low stratus or fog along coastal areas from Tampico Mexico to St. Marks Florida. More fog is over the NW Gulf N of 26N and W of 90W. Broken upper level clouds are over the W Gulf W of 93W. Surface ridging with moderate to fresh return flow will prevail across the basin through Sun evening except in the SW gulf waters where a surface trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula will enhance the winds to strong at night. A cold front will enter the NW waters Sun evening and will reach from southern Mississippi to 25N93W to the Bay of Campeche by Mon afternoon, and from the Florida Big Bend to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue afternoon. The front will weaken and exit the SE gulf waters Wed morning. Heavy showers and tstms are expected with the front across the northern gulf waters Sun evening through early Tue and in the SE basin Tue through early Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Similar scattered showers are over the SW Caribbean along the coasts of S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and W Panama. Upper level ridging is over the entire Caribbean Sea with strong subsidence. High pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue, reaching near gale force off Colombia mainly at night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon night. Long-period NE swell will propagate through the waters E of the Windward Islands through Sun morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to 29N75W to beyond 31N79W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the Florida coast from 30N-32N W of 79W. A 1031 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 37N48W. High pressure ridging dominates the central and eastern Atlantic. The W Atlantic front will move E as it weakens and dissipate by Sun morning. High pressure will establish across the region afterwards and will continue through Tue night. A surface low will track NE from the southern U.S. late on Tue with an associated cold front that will enter the NW waters on Wed morning. The front will reach from near 30N70W to the northern Bahamas Wed night and from 30N65W to 27N72W Thu evening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa