000 AXNT20 KNHC 061801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leon near 07N12W to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-09S between 27W-38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-01S between 15W-24W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers along with cloudiness prevails across most the northern and central Gulf. Fog continues to be reported across the western and northern Gulf. Winds are generally gentle to moderate out of the south- southeast. Otherwise, surface ridging is seen across most of the Gulf. Mid to upper level ridge centered over the Caribbean is providing subsidence particularly in the southeast Gulf and South Florida. A moist SE wind flow south of the ridge will support patchy fog, some dense, over much of the northern Gulf until Sunday morning. SE winds will increase over the western Gulf today as the Yucatan Peninsula trough shifts west over the southwest Gulf. A cold front could bring strong to severe thunderstorms to the Texas coast late Sunday night, then east along the northern Gulf coast Monday. The cold front will cross the basin Monday and Tuesday but weaken into a trough as it reaches the far southeast Gulf by late Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 mb low sits right off the coast of Colombia near 09N76W with a trough extending from the low to near 12N72W. Light to moderate showers continue moving across the eastern portion of the Greater Antilles. Meanwhile, light showers are moving west across the Lesser Antilles in addition to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Showers and clouds are also seen across the western Caribbean off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh trades are occuring throughout the central and eastern Caribbean with strong winds north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are across the north and western Caribbean. The mid to upper level ridge is centered over the central portion of the basin which is providing subsidence to the area and inhibiting convection. High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the southeast and south central Caribbean through early next week, reaching near gale force off Colombia mainly at night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong winds through the Gulf of Honduras into early next week. Long-period NE swell will propagate through the waters east of the Leeward Islands through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the waters at 31N75W and extends to 29N76W with showers moving along the boundary. A trough extends from 28N67W to 24N73W. Scattered to widespread showers are seen moving north- northeast across the southern Bahamas and within 120 nm of this trough. A 1031 mb high centered near 39N56W is ridging across the central and western Atlantic. The surface trough will gradually weaken as it shifts west through early this evening and is replaced by high pressure ridging west across the northern and central waters through Tuesday. The ridging will begin to slide eastward late on Tuesday in response to low pressure that will track northeast from the southern U.S. A cold front associated with this low is expected to emerge off the Southeast U.S. coast late on Tuesday, then weaken and stall over the waters near the northern Bahamas Wednesday and Wednesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR