000 AXNT20 KNHC 060849 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 AM EDT Sat Apr 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 08N13W to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 02S30W to the coast of South America near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N-05S between 00W-03W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-03N between 16W-20W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-07S between 24W-34W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-02S between 39W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Panhandle N of 29N between 84W-88W. This convection is due to stationary front N of the Gulf, and due to some upper level diffluence. Satellite imagery shows low stratus clouds or fog along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. 5-15 kt southerly surface winds are over the entire Gulf. Upper level cloudiness is over the Gulf, except over the SE Gulf and S Florida where strong subsidence prevails. High pressure extends from east central Florida across the northeast Gulf. Moist SE breezes south of the ridge will support areas of fog over the northern Gulf into early Sun. The SE flow will increase over the western Gulf Sat as the high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Mon, then will move across the basin through early next week, before stalling and dissipating over the Straits of Florida through late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large area of rain and showers are over the Windward Islands. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica. Similar scattered showers are over the SW Caribbean along the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and W Panama. Scattered moderate convection is inland over SW Colombia. In the upper levels, a very sharp upper level trough is over the W Caribbean with trough axis along 83W. An upper level ridge is over the E Caribbean with subsidence. High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the southeast and north central Caribbean through early next week, reaching near galie force off Colombia mainly at night. The pattern will also support fresh to strong winds through the Gulf of Honduras into early next weak. Fresh NE swell will impact the waters east of the Lieward Islands through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 28N-31N between 74W-80W. Further E, a surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to 26N71W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Additional showers are over the Bahamas. A large 1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N33W. The W Atlantic surface trough will diminishing overnight as the trough lifts north of the area. Weak ridging will build in the wake of the trough north of 29N into early next week. The ridge will move east Mon ahead of a warm front moving off the southeast coast of United States by late Tue into early Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa