000 AXNT20 KNHC 060003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 08N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 0N21W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Heavy showers and tstms are N of 05S between 05E to 03W and from 07S to 03N between 17W and 33W. Scattered showers and tstms are from 03S to 05N between 36W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Heavy showers and tstms will prevail in the NE gulf through early Sat morning being supported by a middle to upper level trough and a frontal boundary currently N of the area. Surface high pressure dominates elsewhere along with moderate to locally fresh return flow. Otherwise, dense fog and hazy conditions continue to be reported over the NW waters N of 26N. The moderate to fresh southerly flow will persist into Mon, when a cold front will move off the Texas coast. The front will move across the basin early next week, before stalling and dissipating over the Straits of Florida through late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture continue to move across the NW and north-central Caribbean supporting showers and tstms across Jamaica and adjacent waters. Otherwise, fair weather conditions prevails elsewhere being supported by a broad middle level ridge that will dominate the region the next several days. High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the southeast and south central Caribbean through early next week, reaching near gale force off Colombia mainly at night. The pattern will also support fresh to strong winds through the Gulf of Honduras into early next week. Fresh NE swell will impact the waters east of the Leeward Islands through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough prevails over the SW Atlantic from 30N59W to 24N70W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are W of the trough and across the Bahamas. This shower activity is being supported by a middle to upper level trough that is also supporting a frontal boundary that will move N of the area tonight through Sat morning. Strong winds and associated seas as well as the shower activity associated with the trough will diminish Sat morning as the trough lifts north of the area. Weak ridging will build in the wake of the trough into early next week. The ridge will move east Mon ahead of a cold front moving off the southeast coast of United States by late Tue into early Wed. Otherwise, surface high pressure prevails elsewhere supporting fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos