000
AXNT20 KNHC 051708
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
108 PM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W 
to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to the coast 
of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
south of 03N between 13W-27W and west of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb surface low remains over the northwest Gulf near 29N94W,
with trough extending from it to 27N97W. Satellite imagery and
surface observations show patchy fog in the vicinity of these
features along the northeast Mexico coast and the Texas/Louisiana
coasts. A stationary front extends along the Gulf northern 
coastline enhancing convection mainly north of 28N and east of 
90W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. 
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds 
across the area. 

High pressure will prevail across the basin through the weekend 
before retreating eastward. The next cold front to move off the 
Texas coast by early Monday. The front will extend from near 
Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche Monday night, then from the 
Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Scattered showers are noted over Costa Rica and Nicaragua, with
some activity reaching the southwest Caribbean waters. Low-topped
showers are noted across the remainder of the basin moving quickly
west with the moderate to fresh trades.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong east 
winds across the south-central Caribbean through early next week.
Winds will pulse to near-gale force each night through Mon night.
Little change is expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the west Atlantic from 31N62W to a 1021 
mb surface low near 28N66W to 25N68W. Scattered showers are 
within 60 nm of the low/trough. Surface ridge prevails elsewhere,
anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 34N34W.

The surface trough/low will drift westward while dissipating 
today. High pressure will then prevail over the west Atlantic 
through Monday, before a retreat eastward ahead of the next cold 
front that will move off the southeast coast of the United States
on Tuesday.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA