150 AXNT20 KNHC 051046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of N Liberia near 07N12W to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 00W-04W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-01S between 10W-23W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-02S between 33W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and N Florida due to upper level diffluence E of an upper level trough axis along 92W. As of 05/0900 UTC, a 1013 mb low formed over the NW Gulf of Mexico near Houston Texas. A warm front extends E from the low to S Mississippi. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt southerly surface flow. Satellite imagery shows dense fog along the NE Mexico coast, together with the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Satellite imagery also shows smoke in the SW Gulf and S Mexico. High pres will prevail across the basin through Sun before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move off the Texas coast early Mon. The front will extend from near Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche Mon night, then from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are over the north-central and NW Caribbean, namely over W Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica. Otherwise, fair weather conditions prevails elsewhere mostly due to an upper level ridge with very strong subsidence. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the S central Caribbean through Tue night. Winds will pulse to near gale force each night through Mon night. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic W of 55W through Sun night, except fresh to strong near the Windward Passage tonight, and in the Gulf of Honduras this weekend. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical Atlantic today through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N62W to a 1020 mb low near 28N65W to 24N70W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1029 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 35N37W. The surface trough will drift westward while dissipating today. High pressure will then prevail over the W Atlantic through Mon before starting to retreat eastward ahead of a cold front which will move off the SE coast of the United States on Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa