569 AXNT20 KNHC 050535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of N Liberia near 07N12W to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-04S between 08W-18W. The trough will drift westward while dissipating through Fri. High pres will then prevail through Mon before starting to retreat eastward ahead of a cold front which will move off the SE coast of the United States on Tue. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and N Florida due to upper level diffluence E of an upper level trough axis along 92W. A stationary front is also over the NE Gulf between SE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt southerly surface flow. Satellite imagery shows dense fog along the NE Mexico coast, together with the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Satellite imagery also shows smoke in the SW Gulf and S Mexico. The stationary front over the northern waters will dissipate Fri. Afterwards, high pres will prevail across the forecast waters through Sun before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front to move off the Texas coast early Mon. The front will extend from near Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche Mon night, then from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture moving across the north-central and NW Caribbean supports scattered showers over W Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica. Otherwise, fair weather conditions prevails elsewhere mostly due to an upper level ridge with very strong subsidence. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the S central Caribbean through Tue. Winds will pulse to near gale force each night through Mon night. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic W of 55W through Sun night, except fresh to strong near the Windward Passage tonight, and in the Gulf of Honduras this weekend. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical Atlantic Fri through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail end of a stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N62W to 28N65W. A surface trough continues SW to the S Bahamas near 22N73W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1030 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 35N37W. The surface trough will drift westward while dissipating through Fri. High pressure will then prevail over the W Atlantic through Mon before starting to retreat eastward ahead of a cold front which will move off the SE coast of the United States on Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa