000 AXNT20 KNHC 042358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 758 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 04S to 05N E of 20W and from 05S to 03N W of 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... Heavy showers and tstms will prevail in the north-central gulf through Friday morning being supported by a middle to upper level trough and a warm front that currently extends along SE Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle offshore waters. This convection will affect the NE gulf waters and portions of Florida through Sat morning. Surface high pressure dominates elsewhere along with moderate to locally fresh return flow. Otherwise, dense fog is being reported ahead of the front N of 26N between 87W and 96W. The ridge will retreat eastward Sun ahead of a cold front, which will move off the Texas coast early Mon. The front will extend from near Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche Mon night, then from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shallow moisture moving across the north-central and NW Caribbean supports showers and tstms across Jamaica and adjacent waters. Otherwise, fair weather conditions prevails elsewhere being supported by a broad middle level ridge that will dominate the region through the next several days. High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the S central Caribbean through Tue. Winds will pulse to near gale force each night through Mon night. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic W of 55W through Sun night, except fresh to strong near the Windward Passage at night through Fri night, and in the Gulf of Honduras this weekend. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical Atlantic Fri through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N62W to a 1019 mb low near 27N66W from which a surface trough extends SW to the southern Bahamas. Isolated showers are within 150 nm of the low center and within 90 nm W of the trough. Another surface trough, remnants of a former front is just E of south Florida supporting isolated showers. These showers are expected to affect the area of south Florida through Fri morning. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores high, which is supporting fair weather conditions. The low will dissipate tonight, with the trough dissipating through Fri. High pres in the SW N Atlc willl prevail through Mon before starting to retreat eastward ahead of a cold front which will move off the SE coast of the United States on Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos