222 AXNT20 KNHC 032355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 755 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds across the south-central Caribbean through the weekend, pulsing to gale-force tonight off Colombia and near-gale force each night thereafter. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 02S16W. The ITCZ continues from 02S16W to 03S26W to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and in the vicinity of both boundaries mainly south of 06N. GULF OF MEXICO... A pair of surface troughs extend over the southwest Gulf waters with no significant convection. The first trough is located off the Mexican coast 24N97W to 20N95W. The second one is right off the western Yucatan from 22N89W to 18N92W. Scattered showers are seen on satellite across the northwest Gulf in addition to the western Gulf into the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1030 mb high just off the coast of South Carolina. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin. High pressure across the forecast waters will shift east later in the week ahead of a cold front and low pressure area moving through the Central Plains. This will allow winds and seas to increase over the western Gulf on Saturday. The front will move off the Texas coast by late Sunday. The front will extend from near Mississippi to the Yucatan Peninsula by Monday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale-force winds are expected to develop tonight across the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are seen across the central and eastern portions of the basin with fresh to strong north- northeasterly winds to the north of Colombia. Light trades are seen across the western Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the south-central Caribbean through Sunday night. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight off Colombia and near gale force each night thereafter. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W through Sunday night, except fresh to strong near the Windward Passage at night tonight and Thursday night, and in the Gulf of Honduras this weekend. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the waters at 31N66W to 26N75W. From 26N65W, the tail-end of the frontal boundary stalls from that point into the Straits of Florida. To the east of this boundary, a 1021 mb low is located near 26N66W. A trough extends along this low from 29N65W to 22N68W. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen from 31N-28N west of 55W. There are clouds with embedded isolated showers to the west of the surface trough. Surface riding prevails elsewhere, anchored by a 1037 mb ridge centered near 38N39W. High pressure will build in the wake of the front off the Straits of Florida and prevail across the area through Sunday night. The area of high pressure will start to retreat eastward on Monday ahead of the next cold front which will approach the western waters Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AKR